This paper investigates the causes of China’s output and trade balance fluctuations in the period of 1985–2000, with special attention to the role of the real exchange rate. The effects of four types of shock – the foreign supply shock, the domestic supply shock, the relative demand shock and the nominal shock – are examined, employing a near -VAR that embodies the long-run properties of a ‘dep...

After conceptual clarification of "international business cycle" and a review of the literature, a new indicator is proposed. This indicator refers to two time series only and allows for an internationally comparable quantification of a country's position in the business cycle. We then calculate times series of this indicator from 1970 to 2000 for 30 countries. After some plausibility checks, w...

Yes. A country’s suitability for EMU entry depends on the intensity of trade with EMU members, and the extent to which its business cycles are correlated with those of other members. But both international trade patterns and international business cycle correlations are endogenous. Theoretically, economic integration has an ambiguous effect on the degree to which business cycles are correlated ...

this paper tests the importance of real shocks as sources of fluctuations in iran’s economy. for this purpose, based on the work of boschen and mills, a set of non-monetary variables which can affect economic growth have been selected and by using an illustrative business cycle model in which the production depends on the past and current value of real shocks, the influence 01’ these variables ...

We document that at business cycle frequency, nominal variables, such as aggregate price levels and nominal interest rates, are more correlated across countries than real output. Since national central banks control the domestic money supply and their objective has been to keep the nominal environment stable this might seem puzzling. We ask whether a simple, transparent standard international b...