Rule-based forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that uses features of time series to select and weight extrapolation techniques. Thus, it is dependent upon the identification of features of the time series. Judgmental coding of these features is expensive and the reliability of the ratings is modest. We developed and automated heuristics to detect six features that had previously been judgment...

Whereas probabilistic calibration has been a central normative concept of accuracy in previous research on interval estimates, we suggest here that normative approaches for the evaluation of judgmental estimates should consider the communicative interaction between the individuals who produce the judgments and those who receive or use them for making decisions. We analyze precision and error in...

The modalities and© of necessary and lax truth described by Pfenning and Davies can be seen to arise from the same pair of adjoint logical operators F and U , which pass in both directions between two judgments of differing strength. This may be generalized to a logic with many such adjunctions, across judgments subject to different substructral disciplines, allowing explanation of possibility ...

We investigate the extension of previous work by Krishnaswami et al. in [6] on Handwaving Logic, a logic that can be effectively modeled by Fairtlough and Mendler’s Lax Logic [4], towards trying to achieve a reasonable formalization of ”drunken logic.” More advanced formalizations of drunken logic fail to be modeled effectively by lax logic, and we argue that much more study deserves to be paid...