This paper uses a dynamic factor model for the quarterly changes in consumption goods' prices to separate them into three components: idiosyncratic relative-price changes, aggregate relative-price changes, and changes in the unit of account. The model identifies a measure of "pure" inflation: the common component in goods' inflation rates that has an equiproportional effect on all prices and is...

With inflation and policy interest rates at historically low levels, policymakers show great concern about "downside tail risks" due to a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Low probability or tail events, such as sustained deflation or recession, are disruptive for the economy and can be difficult to resolve. This paper shows that price-level targeting mitigates downside tail risks res...

This paper analyses two reasons why inflation may interfere with price adjustment so as to create inefficiencies in resource allocation at low rates of inflation. The first argument is that the higher the rate of inflation the lower the likelihood that downward nominal rigidities are binding (the Tobin argument) which implies a non-linear Phillips-curve. The second argument is that low inflatio...

This paper examines the effects of inflation on the efficiency of the price system, output and welfare, through a model of monopolistic competition with consumer search and (S,s) price setting. Its results have relevance for both search theory and macroeconomics. In particular, it provides a foundation for the conventional wisdom linking higher inflation, through increased price dispersion, to ...

This letter is intended to demonstrate that price inflation and stock returns display differing relationships depending on the measure of inflation used. Using data from 1966 – 2009, it appears that no correlation exists between any measure of price inflation and stock returns or dividend yield in the period 1983 – 2009. We do find a negative correlation between monetary inflation and dividend ...

The annual average rate of inflation in the GDP deflator for 1980 was 10.1 percent. By 1984, the same measure had dropped to 4.4 percent, and from 1990 through the end of 1993, the rate of inflation has averaged 3.2 percent, deviating only moderately from that average over the period. From 1981 to 1984, the civilian unemployment rate averaged 8.6 percent, peaking at 10.7 percent in the fourth q...

This paper uses a dynamic factor model for the quarterly changes in consumption goods’ prices to separate them into three components: idiosyncratic relative-price changes, aggregate relative-price changes, and changes in the unit of account. The model identifies a measure of “pure” inflation: the common component in goods’ inflation rates that has an equiproportional effect on all prices and is...

The increase in nonlabor input cannot be measured directly in physical terms. Nonlabor input is estimated by taking the total increase in nonlabor costs during the period and deflating it by a price index. Under this procedure, the increase in the price index represents the increase resulting from prices and the residual (nonlabor cost in constant dollars) represents the nonlabor input. (The ra...

The primary goal of Federal Reserve monetary policy is to foster maximum long-term growth in the U.S. economy by achieving price stability over time. Price stability will be achieved, according to some definitions, when inflation ceases to be a factor in the decisionmaking processes of businesses and individuals. Although the Federal Reserve has made considerable progress toward price stability...