Real economic data always present nonlinear properties such as asymmetry and radically change in the series through time. Missing data and jumps as well as breaks also common reported in economic time series model. Thus, linear models are no longer suitable used in estimate the economic data and markov switching vector autoregressive model (MS-VAR) is applied in study the economic model. This p...

abstract:this study examines the significant impact of exchange rate shock on prices of malaysian importsand exports. in methodology, the study adopts vector error correction (vecm) model using monthlydata of nominal exchange rates, money supply, prices of imports and prices of exports covering theperiod of m1:1999 to m12:2006. for further analysis, we adopt an innovation accounting bysimulatin...

The study of determining the factors affecting inflation or consumer price index has been conducted by many macroeconomic economists nationally as well as internationally. In this paper, we assess the external determinants of inflation dynamics in Iran. For this purpose, we use an OLS single equation model and a vector error correction model (VECM). Results of the analysis reveal that money sup...

according to amount of oil seeds import in iran are more than 80% of domestic needs, in this study, import comparative advantage in soybeans using rca and rsca index is calculated in 1961-2008 periods for iran and ten important importer countries. iran’s competition state is investigated. also long run relation between production and import comparative advantage index is estimated using johanse...

How to assess external shocks, whether they are inflationary shocks or interest rate without warning, is crucial construct smooth and predictable financial market. The purpose of this paper analyze the short-run long-run effects on an economy under chaotic conditions uncertainty using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). A comprehensive detailed derivation process presented for VECM reveals dy...

iran is one of the most concentrated areas of afghan migrants and refugees. most afghans dispersed throughout the country mixed with iranian households. the majority of afghan immigrants are typically unskilled and illegal workers. this study aims at investigating the nature of the causal relationship between afghan immigrants and two main labor market indicators, average wages and unemployment...

this study uses vector error correction model to examine the effects of oilseeds, crude oil and vegetable oil tariffs on vegetable oil consumer price. monthly data sets for the years 2004-2013 and var and vecm models were applied for this study. research findings indicates only a long term equilibrium relation between the study variables .the effect of vegetable oil tariffs on consumer and prod...

abstract main objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of exchange rate misalignment on wheat’s producer estimates (pse), using the 1989-2007 period’s data. for this purpose, vector error correction model (vecm) along with the use of real exchange rate based on purchasing power party (ppp) was applied to estimate nominal equilibrium exchange rates. then, by using market price suppor...

Vector error -correction models (VECMs) have become increasingly popular in their applications to financial markets. Standard VECM models assume that the cointegrating vectors are of full rank such that they contain no zero elements. However, applications of VECM models to financial market data have revealed that zero entries are indeed possible. The existence of zero entries has not been fully...