This article examines whether recent changes in the security environment, including North Korea’s nuclear test of October 2006, are driving Japan to consider the acquisition of its own nuclear deterrent. It argues that a combination of three factors have thus far sustained Japan’s nuclear restraint: (1) national identity as a non-nuclear weapon state, (2) commitment to global nuclear nonprolife...

This paper examines the effectiveness of Convention on ProhibiƟ Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) toward deterring nuclear escalaƟ on, which entered into force in 2021 and prohibits creaƟ posses-sion, proliferaƟ use weapons while also responding to a number demands related denucle-arizaƟ on. For in-depth analysis theme, regimes theory InternaƟ onal RelaƟ ons criteria theoreƟ cal explanaƟ regime eff ecƟ ve...

We formulate and analyze a spatial queueing model concerning a terrorist who is attempting to drive a nuclear or radiological weapon toward a target in a city center. In our model, imperfect radiation sensors form a circular wall around the periphery of the city, and vehicles setting off sensor alarms (representing a terrorist or a nuisance alarm) arrive randomly at the perimeter of a circle (r...

First, Glaser and Kemp ignore the potential for breakout using a covert facility which would yield weapon grade uranium from a stock of low enriched uranium (LEU) significantly faster than their estimates, based on enrichment activity at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant. Though the paper’s summary and conclusion imply that the possibility of undeclared facilities or feedstock have been incorpor...

Environmental sensing of nuclear activities has the potential to detect nuclear weapon programs at early stages, deter nuclear proliferation, and help verify nuclear accords. However, no robust system of detection has been deployed to date. This can be variously attributed to high costs, technical limitations in detector technology, simple countermeasures, and uncertainty about the magnitude or...

The regime built around the 1970 Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) has helped curtail spread nuclear arms for fifty years. In hindsight, it is remarkable only nine states possess world’s most powerful weapon. NPT achieved much success during Cold War bipolarity and U.S. unipolarity in its aftermath. But today, China’s rise Russia’s resurgence have ushered a new era emerging m...

BACKGROUND Deaths and injuries arising from interpersonal violence among adolescents are major public health concerns in the United States. The bearing of weapons among adolescents is a critical factor in many of these deaths and injuries. METHODS A secondary analysis of the 2005 United States Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System Survey data was carried out to examine the variables associa...

This report is a product of the Defense Science Board (DSB). The DSB is a Federal Advisory Committee established to provide independent advice to the Secretary of Defense. Statements, opinions, conclusions, and recommendations in this report do not necessarily represent the official position of the Department of Defense.