This paper studies the relationship between characteristics of men’s place of residence and the probability of entering marriage in western Germany during the 1980s and 1990s. We link micro-information from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (GSOEP) with district-level data to estimate discrete-time multilevel logit models. Our results support the widely accepted idea about the importance of...

The study uses data from eight censuses conducted between 1970 and 2011 to reconstruct long term trends in terminal celibacy in South Africa. The cohort analysis covers those born between 1870 and 1971. Results show a quasi-stable prevalence of terminal celibacy for cohorts born before 1920, followed by a steep rise. Levels and trends were notably different for the four population groups. Black...

Time series analysis of fertility can improve demographic forecasts. The optimal forecast and its variance for births to an age-structured population subject to serially correlated random fertility are developed. The general case in which the fertility process had arbitrary autoregressive structure is dealt with and then the 4 special cases of white noise, 1st-order autoregressive, 2nd-order ...