this study employs a gmdh neural network model, which has high capability in recognition of complicated non-linear trends especially with small samples, for modeling and predicting iranian gdp growth. first a fundamental model containing 7 independent variables together with dependent variable is designed and then by using deductive process and omission of one variable at a time, a total of 18 ...

capital market is one of the most important sectors of every economy. economic growth can lead to capital market boom and development, on the other hand, achieving desired economic growth and development is impossible without efficient financial institution and suitable funding resources. in this study the relationship between financial development and economic growth in opec countries and non-...

in the era of globalization, particularly, since early 1990s, economies around the world have been affected considerably by co-movements in one or more countries. in the literature this phenomenon is recognized as synchronization in business cycles, while joint policies being conducted by trading partners can modify such effects properly. the objective of this paper has been to evaluate a possi...

the major challenge facing iranian economy is its overwhelming dependence on the oil exports. however, the world oil price has been subject to a lot of shocks, which have destabilized the iranian terms of trade. hence, this paper empirically examines the effect of terms of trade volatility on iran’s economic growth over 1967-2006. for this purpose, based on a garch model, a proxy for the terms ...

empirical evidence seems to indicate that economic growth has varied inversely with natural resource abundance across countries, in which high natural resources dependent economies experience the low economic growth. this paper first reviews the literature of resources curse and shows that the most important challenges of economic development of iran are those mechanisms that change the blessin...

Article history: Received 17 August 2014 Received in revised form 16 February 2015 Accepted 30 March 2015 Available online 17 April 2015 This paper examines the asymptotic dependence between the Chinese stock market and the world crude oil market based on the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and finds a positive extremal dependence. We explain this positive dependence in terms of economic cycles due ...

We develop a model for pricing expropriation risk in natural resource projects, in particular an oil field. The government is viewed as holding an American-style option to expropriate the oil field, but facing the following three possible expropriation costs: A state-run company may produce oil less cost-efficiently than a private firm, the government may have to pay a compensation to the firm,...

This paper investigates the valuation and hedging of spread options on two commodity prices which in the long run are cointegrated. For long term option pricing the spread between the two prices should therefore be modelled directly. This approach offers significant advantages relative to the traditional multi-factor spread option pricing model since the correlation between two asset returns is...

We show that crude oil production from existing wells in Texas does not respond to current or expected future oil prices, contradicting a basic prediction of Hotelling’s (1931) canonical model of exhaustible resource extraction. In contrast, the drilling of new wells exhibits a strong price response, as does the rental rate on drilling rigs. To explain these observations, we reformulate Hotelli...