The analysis of many complex problems and complex dynamic systems suggests that there are dependencies between high complexity and properties of the underlying structures, as the existence of large grids, non-regularities and inhomogeneous structures and irregular flows of information. These observations indicate the existence of a unified criterion that defines structural elements of complex e...

A market maker sets prices over time for wagers that pay out contingent on the future state of the world. The market maker has knowledge of the probability of realizing each state of the world, and of how the price of a bet affects the probability that traders will accept it. We compare the optimal policy for risk-neutral (expected utility maximizing) and Kelly criterion (expected log-utility m...

Consider an investment system with a nonnegative expected return in a one period economy. We show that, for an option with a given strike price, there exists a pricing interval [pC , pW ] such that replacing the original investment with the option will benefit judging by the Kelly criterion only when the price of the option lies outside of the interval. More specifically, buying call options wi...

In this paper, we analyze momentum strategies that are based on reward-risk stock selection criteria in contrast to ordinary momentum strategies based on a cumulative return criterion. Reward-risk stock selection criteria include the standard Sharpe ratio with variance as a risk measure, and alternative reward-risk ratios with the expected shortfall as a risk measure. We investigate momentum st...

Despite much work on hedging in incomplete markets, the literature still lacks tractable dynamic hedges in plausible environments. In this article, we provide a simple solution to this problem in a general incomplete-market economy in which a hedger, guided by the traditional minimum-variance criterion, aims at reducing the risk of a non-tradable asset. We derive fully analytical optimal hedges...

Dependent Variable: Y Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/00 Time: 05:55 Sample: 1 33 Included observations: 33 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 102192.4 12799.83 7.983891 0.0000 N -9074.674 2052.674 -4.420904 0.0001 P 0.354668 0.072681 4.879810 0.0000 I 1.287923 0.543294 2.370584 0.0246 R-squared 0.618154 Mean dependent var 125634.6 Adjusted R-squared 0.578653 S.D. dependent v...

The Kelly betting criterion ignores uncertainty in the probability of winning the bet, and uses an estimated probability. In general, such replacement of population parameters by sample estimates gives poorer out-of-sample than in-sample performance. We show that to improve out-of-sample performance the size of the bet should be shrunk in the presence of this parameter uncertainty, and compare ...

Risk-Adjusted-Return-On-Capital (RAROC) is a loan-pricing criterion under which bank sets the loan term such that certain rate of return achieved on regulatory capital required by Basel regulation. Some banks calculate amount for each standardized approach (“standardized banks,” proportional to amount), and others internal rating-based (IRB) (“IRB related Value-at-Risk loan). This article exami...

Conventional methods of risk assessment typically employed to evaluate the impact of hazardous waste incinerators on public health must rely on somewhat speculative emissions estimates or on complicated and expensive sampling and analytical methods. The limited amount of toxicological information concerning many of the compounds detected in stack emissions also complicates the evaluation of the...