We analyze the limiting distribution of Rivers and Vuong’s (2002) statistic for choosing between two competing dynamic models based on a comparison of GMM minimands. It is shown that: (i) if both models are misspecified then the statistic has a standard normal distribution under the null hypothesis of equal fit but the ranking could be determined by the choice of the weighting matrix; (ii) if b...

This paper tests whether consumption pattern in Korea exhibits a time-inconsistent discounting behavior using a quasi-hyperbolic Euler equation estimated by the generalized method of moments (GMM). In particular, we examine whether consumers change their discounting behavior during financial crises in 1997 and 2008. The estimation results show that Korean consumers exhibit a time-inconsistent q...

This paper proposes a new class of HAC covariance matrix estimators. The standard HAC estimation method re-weights estimators of the autocovariances. Here we initially smooth the data observations themselves using kernel function based weights. The resultant HAC covariance matrix estimator is the normalised outer product of the smoothed random vectors and is therefore automatically positive sem...

Measurement error causes a downward bias when estimating a panel data linear regression model. The panel data context offers various opportunities to derive moment conditions that result in consistent GMM estimators. We consider three sources of moment conditions: (i) restrictions on the intertemporal covariance matrix of the errors in the equations, (ii) heteroskedasticity and nonlinearity in ...

Following the present atmosphere of budgetary cuts we analyze the effects of fiscal consolidation on the composition of government expenditures by functions. Using a dynamic voter group decision model and exploiting the panel structure of the dataset – 26 OECD countries over the period 1970-1997by GMM estimation we find that fiscal adjustments protect social expenditure. Nevertheless, we find t...

In models with potential weak identification researchers often decide whether to report a robust confidence set based on an initial assessment of model identification. Two-step procedures of this sort can generate large coverage distortions for reported confidence sets, and existing procedures for controlling these distortions are quite limited. This paper introduces a generally-applicable appr...

Social sanctions may be a strong deterrent of crime. This paper presents a formal model that relates crime and social sanction to social interaction density. We empirically test the theoretical predictions using a provincial level panel dataset on different crimes in Italy between 1996 and 2003. We exploit detailed demographic and geo-morphological information to develop exogenous measures of s...

We study a key part of NHS policy to ensure high quality health care: failure to supply such care cost the NHS £787m in clinical negligence payouts during 2009-10. The NHS uses risk management standards to incentivise care and we examine their effects on MRSA infections. Using a specially assembled dataset, our GMM results suggest that improvements in the risk management standards attained by s...

This paper examines the impact of anticipated and unanticipated monetary policy announcements, of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee on UK sectoral stock returns. The monetary policy shock is generated from the change in the three-month sterling LIBOR futures contract. Using a panel GMM estimator we find that both the expected and unexpected components of monetary changes are signi...

Banking sector openness may directly increase growth by improving the quality of financial services and increasing funds available, or indirectly by improving the efficiency of financial intermediaries, both of which may reduce the cost of financing, in turn, increase capital accumulation and economic growth. The objective of the paper is to empirically reinvestigate these direct and indirect l...