Should a central bank accommodate energy price shocks? Should the central bank use core inflation or headline inflation with the volatile energy component in its Taylor rule? To answer these questions, we build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with energy use, durable goods, and nominal rigidities to study the effects of an energy price shock and its impact on the macroeconomy whe...

This paper examines the effectiveness of Taylor rule in contemporary times by investigating exchange rate forecastability selected four Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries vis-à-vis U.S. It employs various models with a non-drift random walk using monthly data from 1995 to 2019. The efficacy model is demonstrated analyzing pre- post-financial crisis pe...

a r t i c l e i n f o This paper investigates the sources of exchange rate fluctuations when monetary policy follows a Taylor rule interest rate reaction function. We first present a simple dynamic exchange rate model with Taylor rule fundamentals which is triangular in the long-run impacts of shocks to the output market, the interest rate differential, and the Taylor rule. We then proceed to a...

Based on a more realistic assumption, we modify the Taylor regression. The modified Taylor regression gives an explanation of why the (standard) Taylor regression is spurious (in the econometric sense, i.e. no stable relationship among the variables of interest) and, at the same time, a solution as to how central bank monetary policy can still be described by the Taylor rule. An empirical examp...