We propose a new method to determine the cointegration rank in the error correction model of Engle and Granger (1987). To this end, we first estimate the cointegration vectors in terms of a residual-based principal component analysis. Then the cointegration rank, together with the lag order, is determined by a penalized goodness-of-fit measure. We have shown that the estimated cointegration vec...

providing of food products for increasing population, enhancing food security, increasing of production and foreign incomes are among the major program purposes of each country and monetary policies are one of the methods that immediately affected on food price and on major agriculture variables. time series analysis was used for studying the impacts of monetary policies effect on food price in...

We extend the vector autoregression (VAR) based expectations hypothesis test of term structure, considered in Bekaert & Hodrick (2001) using recent developments in bootstrap literature. Modifications include the use of wild bootstrap to allow for conditional heteroskedasticity in the VAR residuals without imposing strict parameterization, endogeneous model selection procedure in the bootstrap r...

This paper develops a Bayesian Vector Error Correction Model (BVECM) for forecasting inventory investment in South Africa. The model is estimated using quarterly data on actual sales, production, unfilled orders, price levels and interest rates, for the period of 1978 to 2000. The out-of-sample-forecast accuracy obtained from the BVECM, over the forecasting horizon of 2001:1 to 2003:4, is compa...

In this paper we investigate the long run relationship between financial depth and economic growth, trying to utilize the data in the most efficient manner via panel unit root tests and panel cointegration analysis. In addition, we use threshold cointegration tests, and dynamic panel data estimation for a panel-based vector error correction model. The long run relationship is estimated using fu...

iran is one of the most concentrated areas of afghan migrants and refugees. most afghans dispersed throughout the country mixed with iranian households. the majority of afghan immigrants are typically unskilled and illegal workers. this study aims at investigating the nature of the causal relationship between afghan immigrants and two main labor market indicators, average wages and unemployment...

Purpose- This study uses a VECM model that aims to see the short-run and long-term effects of managerial ownership, sales growth, free cash flow, asset structure against debt policy. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is can be used for time series data not stationary but has cointegration relationship where in included exogenous variables as additional regressors.
 Research Method- The ...

Simple state-independent monetary institutions are shown to secure optimal cooperative policies in a stochastic, linear-quadratic two-country world with international policy spill-overs and national credibility problems. Institutions characterize delegation to independent central bankers facing quadratic performance related contracts punishing or rewarding deviations from primary and intermedia...