This paper aims at improved accuracy in testing for long-run predictability in noisy series, such as stock market returns. Long-horizon regressions have previously been the dominant approach in this area. We suggest an alternative method that yields more accurate results. We find evidence of predictability in S&P 500 returns even when the confidence intervals are constructed using model-free me...

We analyze the ups and downs in economic growth recent decades by constructing a model with recurrent bubbles, crashes, endogenous growth. Once realized, bubbles crowd investment stimulate growth, but expectation about future crowds out reduces identify bubbly episodes estimating using US data. Counterfactual simulations suggest that IT housing not only caused booms also lifted GDP almost 2 per...

This article proposes a functional dynamic factor model for the evaluation of the impact of scalar– and curve–valued factors on the shapes of intraday price curves. The asymptotic theory leads to practically useful confidence intervals for the factor coefficients. The main findings pertain to the impact of the shapes of intraday oil futures on the shapes of intraday prices of blue chip stocks. ...

abstract in this paper, markov chain and dynamic programming were used to represent a suitable pattern for tax relief and tax evasion decrease based on tax earnings in iran from 2005 to 2009. results, by applying this model, showed that tax evasion were 6714 billion rials**. with 4% relief to tax payers and by calculating present value of the received tax, it was reduced to 3108 billion rials. ...

Abstract Portfolio performance measures using holdings data are panel regressions. The returns of a fund’s stocks regressed on its lagged portfolio weights. Stock fixed effects isolate average from time-series predictive ability. Control variables condition for fund the characteristics held. long-term drives some classical measures, while ability others. A “buy-and-hold drift,” where weights in...

We provide several generalizations of Mailath’s (1987) result that in games of asymmetric information with a continuum of types incentive compatibility plus separation implies differentiability of the informed agent’s strategy. The new results extend the theory to classic models in finance such as Leland and Pyle (1977), Glosten (1989), and DeMarzo and Duffie (1999), that were not previously co...

This study aimed to identify promising crosses generate cowpea breeding populations for the Brazilian Cerrado region. The experiment was carried out during two crop seasons. experimental design used a randomized block with four replications and 20 genotypes prostrate. effect of significant all traits evaluated. Mahalanobis distance Tocher’s cluster were estimate genetic diversity. Singh’s crite...

the kermani sheep is an important meat producing an animal in iran and its economic efficiency is mainly dependent on its growth and reproduction ability. inter-simple sequence repeat (issr) is the genome region between microsatellite loci. the aim of this study was to evaluate the association of two different issr markers with predicted breeding values (pbv) of body weight trait in kermani she...

هدف: تخمین شناختی تلاش برای ارائه یک پاسخ معقول براساس اطلاعات در دسترس است. هدف از این مطالعه طراحی آزمون و بررسی روایی، پایایی مقادیر هنجار آن روش: 643 نفر دانشجویان دانشگاه شهید بهشتی انجام شد. آزمون‌های شده حاضر، مرتب کردن کارت­‌های ویسکانسین، رنگ واژه استروپ حافظه فعال چند محرک پیشین به عنوان آزمون­‌های کارکرد اجرایی همزمان ارزیابی مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. همبستگی پیرسون روایی همزمان، تی مق...