This paper combines a data-rich environment with machine learning algorithm to provide new estimates of time-varying systematic expectational errors (“belief distortions”) embedded in survey responses. We find sizable distortions even for professional forecasters, all respondent-types overweighting the implicit judgmental component their forecasts relative what can be learned from publicly avai...

We study the relationship between domestic-demand shocks and exports using data for Spanish manufacturing firms in 2002–2013. Exploiting plausibly exogenous geographical variation caused by Great Recession, we find that whose domestic sales declined more experienced a larger increase export flows, controlling firms’ supply determinants. This result illustrates capacity of markets to counteract ...

If the Mortensen and Pissarides model with efficient bargaining is calibrated to replicate the fluctuations of unemployment over the business cycle, it implies a far too strong rise of the unemployment rate when unemployment benefits rise. This paper explores an alternative, right-to-manage bargaining scheme. This also generates the right degree of fluctuations of unemployment but at the same t...

Multiresolution wavelet analysis is a natural way to decompose economic time series into components of various frequencies: long-run trend, business-cycle component, and high frequency noise. This paper illustrates the method on real GNP and inflation. The business-cycle component of the wavelet-filtered series closely resembles the series filtered by the approximate bandpass filter (Baxter and...

We provide two ways to reconcile small values of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) that range between 0.35 and 0.5 with empirical evidence that the IES is large. We do this reconciliation using a model in which all agents have identical preferences and the same access to asset markets. We also conduct an encompassing test, which indicates that specifications of the model with s...

in this study, we assess the impact of oil price changes on the macroeconomic variables of some oil importers in oecd countries, including usa, italian, france and japan during the period 1960-2002. the results for different countries imply asymmetric impact of oil price changes on gdp growth rates; moreover, the results show that monetary shocks are an important and noticeable factor explainin...

We study the effects of government spending by using a structural, large dimensional, dynamic factor model. We find that the government spending shock is non-fundamental for the variables commonly used in the structural VAR literature, so that its impulse response functions cannot be consistently estimated by means of a VAR. Government spending raises both consumption and investment, with no ev...

We examine robustness of stability under learning to observability of exogenous shocks. Regardless of observability assumptions, the minimal state variable solution is robustly stable under learning provided the expectational feedback is not both positive and large, while the nonfundamental solution is never robustly stable. Overlapping generations and New Keynesian models are considered and co...

In this paper, we re-examine the empirical relevance of the cost channel of monetary policy. We employ recently developed moment-conditions inference procedures, which provide a more e¢ cient and reliable econometric framework than in previous literature. Using US data, our results suggest that there is no substantial evidence for the existence of a cost channel. Keywords: Cost channel; Phillip...

The speci…cation of the accumulation function is critical for the properties and implications of structuralist and post-Keynesian models. A large Kaleckian literature assumes that investment is relatively insensitive to variations in the utilization rate of capital, and this extension of a standard short-run "Keynesian stability condition" to the long run has been defended by Lavoie and Dutt, a...