We analyse the mathematical structure of portfolio credit risk models with particular regard to the modelling of dependence between default events in these models. We explore the role of copulas in latent variable models (the approach that underlies KMV and CreditMetrics) and use non-Gaussian copulas to present extensions to standard industry models. We explore the role of the mixing distributi...

Based on the idea of KMV model to build China's local government debt credit risk model, and associate the credit risk with borrowing scale to put forward the moderate debt scale of local government. Studies show that: The credit risks of local government debt is very sensitive to debt scale, When debt scale increases to a certain extent, the government’s default probability will rise sharply, ...

This paper proposes and examines a new structural risk of default model for banks in frictional fuzzy financial markets. It is motivated by the need to fill shortcomings probability-based credit metric models that are characterised unrealistic assumptions such as crisply precise constant risk-free rates return. The problem investigated here specifically Kealhofer–Merton–Vasicek (KMV)-type estim...

Some modified structural and reduced-form models of credit risk implicitly assume that the market has less information than managers who declare default on their outstanding debt. As a result the announcement of default or disclosure of information that indicates a firm is in distress comes as a “surprise” to the market. In this paper, we study the extent to which private information is reveale...

the present paper aimed at studying the current models of credit portfolio management. there are currently three types of models which consider the risk of credit portfolio: the structural models (moody's kmv model, and credit- metrics model), the intensity models (the actuarial models) and the econometric models (the macro-factors model). the development of these three types of models is based...