The welfare costs of inflation and inflation uncertainty are well documented in the literature and empirical evidence on the link between the two is sparse in the case of Egypt. This paper investigates the causal relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Egypt using monthly time series data during the period January 1974–April 2015. To endogenously control for any potential st...

This paper analyzes optimal wage contracting assuming agents are not subjective expected utility maximizers but are, instead, ambiguity (or uncertainty) averse decision makers who maximize Choquet expected utility. We show that such agents will choose not to include any indexation coverage in their wage contracts even when inflation is uncertain, unless the perceived inflation uncertainty is hi...

This study applies an approximate dynamic factor model to forecast three macroeconomic variables of Taiwan – inflation based on consumer price index, unemployment rate, and industrial production growth rate. Our data contain 95 macroeconomic variables of Taiwan and 89 international time series during 1981Q1-2006Q4. We perform out-of-sample forecasting from a rolling-window estimation scheme and...

The aim of this study is to examine the nonlinear effects of fiscal and monetary policies on inflation during 1990:3 to 2013:1 based on threshold model. First lag of the liquidity growth is recognized as threshold variable with threshold value estimated at 6.37 percent. In low liquidity growth, the results indicate that inflation expectations and the lagged liquidity growth are the most importa...

The paper investigates the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty using the Iranian data over the period 1959:03 – 2008:02. GARCH models are used to examine this relationship. Granger methods are employed to provide statistical evidence for the relationship between average inflation and inflation uncertainty. Threshold GARCH (TGARCH) models are considered to investigate asymme...

This paper examines matched point and density forecasts of inflation from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to analyze the relationship between expected inflation, disagreement, and uncertainty. We extend previous studies through our data construction and estimation methodology. Specifically, we derive measures of disagreement and uncertainty by using a decomposition proposed in earlier re...

Reply : We think that the Tunisian case is also interesting for a broad audience. Tunisia has made important progress over the last decade toward establishing a sound bank intermediation, deepening its financial market, mobilizing domestic financing, and using indirect market-based monetary policy instruments. Monetary policy is useful to obtain a stable macroeconomic environment in favor of a ...

We investigate whether the financial system dampens or exacerbates monetary shocks of inflation uncertainty to the economy. Our GMM-estimates for 88 countries over a period of 25 years show that inflation uncertainty has a positive and significant impact on the volatility of economic growth. More importantly, we find that financial development dampens the negative effects of inflation uncertain...