The Basel II Accord requires banks to establish rigorous statistical procedures for the estimation and validation of default and ratings transition probabilities. This raises great technical challenges when sufficient default data are not available, as is the case for low default portfolios. We develop a new model that describes the typical internal credit rating process used by banks. The mode...

We propose a tree-structured heterogeneous autoregressive (tree-HAR) process as a simple and parsimonious model for the estimation and prediction of tick-by-tick realized correlations. The model can account for different time and other relevant predictors’ dependent regime shifts in the conditional mean dynamics of the realized correlation series. Testing the model on S&P 500 and 30-year treasu...

s teel industries play a key role in the national economy and welfare of the society in many steel manufacturer countries. it is found that manufacturing and consuming of steel products would be a key indicator to measure and evaluate economic and industrial performance of a country. nowadays, countries with the large natural oil and gas resources (e.g. iran) attempt to select an alternative ec...

In this paper, we consider a model selection issue in semiparametric panel data models with fixed effects. The modelling framework under investigation can accommodate both nonlinear deterministic trends and cross-sectional dependence. And we consider the so-called “large panels” where both the time series and cross sectional sizes are very large. A penalised profile least squares method with fi...

This paper develops a new framework and tools, and reexamines Fama-French regressions. For Fama-French portfolios, we consider a continuous-time factor model with a specific error component structure implied by the underlying asset pricing theory. The model is then analyzed as a continuous-time multivariate regression with a general martingale differential error, allowing for time-varying and s...

We consider model identification for infinite variance autoregressive time series processes. It is shown that a consistent estimate of autoregressive model order can be obtained by minimizing Akaike’s information criterion, and we use all-pass models to identify noncausal autoregressive processes and estimate the order of noncausality (the number of roots of the autoregressive polynomial inside...

We examine the joint predictability of return and cash flow within a present value framework, by imposing the implications from a long-run risk model that allow for both time-varying volatility and volatility uncertainty. We provide new evidence that the expected return variation and the variance risk premium positively forecast both short-horizon returns and dividend growth rates. We also conf...

In this paper we consider a panel data model with error components that are both spatially and time-wise correlated. The model blends specifications typically considered in the spatial literature with those considered in the error components literature. We introduce generalizations of the generalized moments estimators suggested in Kelejian and Prucha (1999. A generalized moments estimator for ...

The paper advocates and implements a new panel structure model to investigate the club convergence hypothesis. The model consists of a set of linear dynamic models that characterize the behavior of growth rates within each convergence club and a logistic regression that classifies these linear models. An EM algorithm is used to estimate the system by maximum likelihood and inference is conducte...

A stochastic frontier production function is defined for panel data on firms, in which the non-negative technical inetGciency effects are assumed to be a function of firm-specific variables and time. The inefficiency effects are assumed to be independently distributed as truncations of normal distributions with constant variance, but with means which are a linear function of observable variable...