We show that the use of prior information derived from former empirical findings and/or subject matter theory regarding the lag structure of the observable variables together with an AR process for the error terms can produce univariate and single equation models that are intuitively appealing, simple to implement and work well in practice. JEL Classification

From 1962 to 2013, the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) agricultural employment share declined from 82% to 31%. The transfer of workers out of low-productivity agriculture is a fundamental pillar of the PRC’s aspirations to progress and eventually become a high-income economy. We hypothesize that the drivers of this decline have been the increase in income per capita, industrial value added...

The present article uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure to identify the long run equilibrium relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. TodaYamamoto andWald-test causality tests have identified the direction of the causal relationship between these two variables in the case of Pakistan in the period between 1971 and 2008. Ng-Perron and ...

Framing is a sophisticated form of discourse in which the speaker tries to induce a cognitive bias through consistent linkage between a topic and a specific context (frame). We build on political science and communication theory and use probabilistic topic models combined with time series regression analysis (autoregressive distributed-lag models) to gain insights about the language dynamics in...

The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and alternative volatility models, including the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, an...

This paper contributes to the literature by empirically examining whether the influence of public debt on economic growth differs between the short and the long run and presents different patterns across euro-area countries. To this end, we use annual data from both central and peripheral countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) for the 1960-2012 period and estimate a growth ...

We investigated the asymmetric effects of energy consumption, car ownership and tourism activities on CO2 emissions in UK. Empirical results from Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (...

his study attempts to examine the empirical relationship between gasoline taxes (as the most effective energy carrier of emissions) and labor productivities in the case of Iran using the time series data for the period 1990-2015  usingthe autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. This research tests the interrelationship between the variables using the bounds testing to cointegration proc...

This study aims to examine the effect of investment and consumption spending on Indonesia’s economic growth. The data used is the quarterly time series data from the first quarter of year 2003 to the fourth quarter of year 2013, comprising consumption spending, investment and economic growth. For the purpose of analysis, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is used. The result of the...