The general pattern of estimated volatilities of macroeconomic and financial variables is often broadly similar. We propose two models in which conditional volatilities feature comovement and study them using U.S. macroeconomic data. The first model specifies the conditional volatilities as driven by a single common unobserved factor, plus an idiosyncratic component. We label this model BVAR wi...

In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus on the estimation of their predictive distributions, with special attention being paid to the mean and the covariance matrix of h-steps ahead forecasts. In the empirical analysis, we examine the forecasting performance of the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) that has been designed f...

To reduce the computational burden for structural reliability analysis involving complex numerical models, many adaptive algorithms based on surrogate models have been developed. Among various support vector machine regression (SVR) which is derived from statistical learning theory has demonstrated superior performance to handle nonlinear problems and avoid overfitting with excellent generaliza...

INTRODUCTION There has been much interest in spatial analysis of ALS to identify potential environmental or genetically caused clusters of disease. Results to date have been inconclusive. The Irish ALS register has been recently geocoded, presenting opportunity to perform a spatial analysis on national prospectively gathered data of incident cases over an 18-year period. METHODS 1,645 cases o...

We propose a fully Bayesian approach for generalized kernel models (GKMs), which are extensions of generalized linear models in the feature space induced by a reproducing kernel. We place a mixture of a point-mass distribution and Silverman’s g-prior on the regression vector of GKMs. This mixture prior allows a fraction of the regression vector to be zero. Thus, it serves for sparse modeling an...

Integrins connect the extracellular matrix with the cell interior, and transduce signals through interactions of their cytoplasmic tails with cytoskeletal and signaling proteins. Using the yeast two-hybrid system, we isolated a novel splice variant (filamin-Bvar-1) of the filamentous actin cross-linking protein, filamin-B, that interacts with the cytoplasmic domain of the integrin beta1A and be...

1 Chris Laing, Southampton Institute, Technology Faculty, Southampton, SO14 0YN, UK, [email protected] 2 Alan Robinson, Southampton Institute, Technology Faculty, Southampton, SO14 0YN, UK, [email protected] 3 Graham King, Southampton Institute, Technology Faculty, Southampton, SO14 0YN, UK, [email protected] Abstract  As an increasing higher priority United Kingdo...