Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500-1800 in Europe. Results show that cooling from A.D....

Although climate is known to be one of the key factors determining animal species distributions amongst others, projections of global change impacts on their distributions often rely on bioclimatic envelope models. Vegetation structure and landscape configuration are also key determinants of distributions, but they are rarely considered in such assessments. We explore the consequences of using ...

Hydrologic regime is highly dependent on climate change, as hydrologic cycle components are directly influenced by climatic conditions. This paper analyzes the impacts of climate change on the hydrologic regime of the Atrak River basin in the northeast of Iran. It drains to the Caspian Sea. The data collected at 11 hydrometeorological stations were examined to detect trends in hydroclimatologic...

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend...

Anticipating how biodiversity will respond to climate change is challenged by the fact that climate variables affect individuals in competition with others, but interest lies at the scale of species and landscapes. By omitting the individual scale, models cannot accommodate the processes that determine future biodiversity. We demonstrate how individual-scale inference can be applied to the prob...

A K-nearest neighbor (K-nn) re-sampling scheme is presented that simulates daily weather variables, and consequently seasonal climate and spatial and temporal dependencies, at multiple stations in a given region. A strategy is introduced that uses the K-nn algorithm to produce alternative climate data-sets conditioned upon hypothetical climate scenarios – e.g. warmer-drier springs, warmer-wette...

A bioclimate model predicting the presence or absence of aspen, Populus tremuloides, in western USA from climate variables was developed by using the Random Forests classification tree on Forest Inventory data from about 118,000 permanent sample plots. A reasonably parsimonious model used eight predictors to describe aspen’s climate profile. Classification errors averaged 4.5%, most of which we...

Bird species richness is mediated by local, regional, and historical factors, for example, competition, environmental heterogeneity, contemporary, and historical climate. Here, we related bird species richness with phylogenetic relatedness of bird assemblages, plant species richness, topography, contemporary climate, and glacial-interglacial climate change to investigate the relative importance...