CREDIT RISK MODELLING AND QUANTIFICATION Credit risk modelling and quantification is a very crucial issue in bank management and has become more popular among practitioners and academicians in recent years because of the changes and developments in banking and financial systems. CreditMetrics of J.P. Morgan, KMV Portfolio Manager, CreditRisk+ of Credit Suisse First Boston, and McKinsey’s Credit...

We propose two structural models for stochastic loss given default that allow the credit losses of a portfolio of defaultable financial instruments to be modeled. The credit losses are integrated into a structural model of default events accounting for correlations between the default events and the associated losses. We show how the models can be calibrated and analyze the impact of correlatio...

When economic capital is calculated using a portfolio model of credit value-at-risk, the marginal capital requirement for an instrument depends, in general, on the properties of the portfolio in which it is held. By contrast, ratings-based capital rules, including both the current Basel Accord and its proposed revision, assign a capital charge to an instrument based only on its own characterist...

This entry provides a brief overview of credit migration or transition matrices, which characterize past changes in credit quality of obligors (typically firms). They are cardinal inputs to many risk management applications, including portfolio risk assessment, the pricing of bonds and credit derivatives, and the assessment of regulatory capital as is the case for the New Basel Accord. I addres...

This paper proposes a new model for portfolio sensitivity analysis. The model is suitable for decision support in financial institutions, specifically for portfolio planning and portfolio management. The basic advantage of the model is the ability to create simulations for credit risk predictions in cases when we virtually change portfolio structure and/or macroeconomic factors. The model takes...

Asset correlation is a critical driver in modeling portfolio credit risk. Despite its importance, there have been few studies on the empirical relationship between asset correlation and subsequently realized default correlation, and portfolio credit risk. This three three-way relationship is the focus of our study using U.S. public firm default data from 1981 to 2006. We find the magnitude of d...

Over the past several years, there has been an extensive discussion among practitioners and academics about whether and how a portfolio management approach could help banks to better manage risk capital and create shareholder value. In this article, the authors argue that there are four key drivers which require banks to move from a transactional to a more portfolio management like approach whe...

We present a simple adjustment to the single-factor credit capital model, which recognizes the diversification from a multi-factor credit setting. The model can be applied to extend the Basel II regulatory framework to a general multi-factor setting, thus allowing for more accurate modeling of diversification for portfolios across various asset classes, sectors and regions, and in particular wi...

Capital allocation for credit portfolios has two meanings. First, at portfolio level it means to determine capital as a buffer against an unexpected negative cash-flow resulting from credit losses. In this case, the allocation method can be specified by means of a risk measure. Its result is called economic capital of the portfolio. Second, at sub-portfolio or transaction level, capital allocat...