In this study, we conducted an oil prices forecasting competition among a set of structural models, including vector autoregression and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Our results highlight two principles. First, forecasts should exploit the fact that real are mean reverting over long horizons. Second, models not replicate high volatility observed in samples. By following ...

In this paper, I argue that applied monetary policy analysis is hard. In particular, all of our models are grossly deficient relative to the ideal, and this cannot be corrected in the medium term. This view has important implications for answering the Simsian question of whether any given change in policy analysis methods is progress or regress. As an application of these ideas, I assess the po...

This paper evaluates the suitability of current DSGE models for monetary policy analysis from a Bayesian perspective, recognizing that these models may be useful even if they are misspecified along some dimensions, using the framework laid out in Faust and Gupta (2009). The paper argues that practical monetary policy analysis deals with determining how intended policy should be revised in light...

This paper proposes a functional specification approach for dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models that explores the properties of the solution method used to approximate policy functions. In particular, the solution-driven specification takes the properties of the solution method directly into account when designing the structural model in order to deliver enhanced flexibility an...

4 A method to estimate DSGE models using the raw data is proposed. The approach 5 links the observables to the model counterparts via a ‡exible speci…cation which does 6 not require the model-based component to be solely located at business cycle frequen7 cies, allows the non model-based component to take various time series patterns, and 8 permits model misspeci…cation. Applying standard data ...

* This paper grew out of the Panel Discussion of the workshop " SDGE Models and their use in monetary policy " , held at the European Central Bank, June 5-6, 2001. I would like to thank the participants of the TSM conference in Touluse for comments and suggestions.

This paper considers tests of the effectiveness of a policy intervention, defined as a change in the parameters of a policy rule, in the context of a macroeconometric dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We consider two types of intervention, first the standard case of a parameter change that does not alter the steady state, and second one that does alter the steady state, e.g. ...