Background Simple mechanistic epidemic models are widely used for forecasting and parameter estimation of infectious diseases based on noisy case reporting data. Despite the widespread application of models to emerging infectious diseases, we know little about the comparative performance of standard computational-statistical frameworks in these contexts. Here we build a simple stochastic, discr...

Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic's behavior, policy makers can design and implement more effective countermeasures. This past year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention hosted the "Predict...

Infectious disease forecasting has been a key focus in the recent past owing to COVID-19 pandemic and proved be an important tool controlling pandemic. With advent of reliable spatiotemporal data, graph neural network models have able successfully model inter-relation between cross-region signals produce quality forecasts, but like most deep-learning they do not explicitly incorporate underlyin...

Abstract In November 2016, an unprecedented epidemic thunderstorm asthma event in Victoria, Australia, resulted many thousands of people developing breathing difficulties a very short period time, including 10 deaths, and created extreme demand across the Victorian health services. To better prepare for future events, pilot forecasting system (ETSA) risk has been developed Victoria. The uses ca...

BACKGROUND Malaria infection increases low birthweight especially in primigravidae. Malaria epidemics occur when weather conditions favour this vector borne disease. Forecasting using the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may assist in anticipating epidemics and reducing the impact of a disease which is an important cause of low birthweight. The aim of the present study was to determine the i...

BACKGROUND The quest for an effective system capable of monitoring and predicting the trends of epidemic diseases is a critical issue for communities worldwide. With the prevalence of Internet access, more and more researchers today are using data from both search engines and social media to improve the prediction accuracy. In particular, a prediction market system (PMS) exploits the wisdom of ...