A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979–2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the cyclones is captured using a 150 cell spatial regularisation, latitude as a covariate, and spatial random effects. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is also us...

Tropical cyclones are an example of a multihazard event with impacts that can highly vary depending on landfall location, wind speed, storm surge, and inland flooding from precipitation. These storms are typically categorized by their wind speed and pressure, while evacuation orders are typically given based on storm surge. The general public relies on these single hazard assessment parameters ...

It is frequently stated that 70%–80% of western North Pacific tropical cyclones form ‘‘within the monsoon trough,’’ but without an objective definition of the term. Several definitions are tested here. When the monsoon trough (MT) is defined as the contiguous region where long-term (1988–2010) mean July– November 850-hPa relative vorticity is positive, 73% of all July–November tropical cyclones...

A large-amplitude mixed Rossby–gravity wave packet is identified in the western Pacific using 6–10-day bandpass-filtered winds. Individual disturbances of 2300–3000-km wavelength propagated westward as the packet moved slowly eastward. The packet first appeared, and subsequently amplified, within a region of active convection associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), which was isolat...

Frequency and intensity of cyclones over the North Atlantic are investigated using 2 data sets from simulations with the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA3. The model domain comprises large parts of the North Atlantic and the adjacent continents. RCA3 is driven by ECHAM5OM1 general circulation model data for May to December from 1985 to 2000 and May to December from 2085 to 2100 assuming...

The advance in targeted observations of tropical cyclone movement is reviewed in this article. The targeted observations from DOTSTAR (Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region) in understanding and improving the tropical cyclone track predictability is highlighted, along with the progress of the field program of THORPEX-PARC in the summer of 2008. The impact of...

I have four long-term goals. My first goal is to finalize the large body of work already carried out by the PI on the predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) forecast tracks out to 72 hours ahead. My second goal is to apply similar, as well as new, ideas to the predictability of forecast intensity out to 72 hours ahead. My third goal is to carry out observing system simulation experiments (OSSE...

BACKGROUND Zhejiang Province, located in southeastern China, is frequently hit by tropical cyclones. This study quantified the associations between infectious diarrhea and the seven tropical cyclones that landed in Zhejiang from 2005-2011 to assess the impacts of the accompanying precipitation on the studied diseases. METHOD A unidirectional case-crossover study design was used to evaluate th...