Scoring rules are an important tool for evaluating the performance of probabilistic forecasts. A popular example is the Brier score, which allows for a decomposition into terms related to the sharpness (or information content) and to the reliability of the forecast. This feature renders the Brier score a very intuitive measure of forecast quality. In this paper, it is demonstrated that all stri...

INTEGRATION, COINTEGRATION AND THE FORECAST CONSISTENCY OF STRUCTURAL EXCHANGE RATE MODELS Exchange rate forecasts are generated using some popular monetary models of exchange rates, in conjunction with several estimation techniques. We propose an alternative set of criteria for evaluating forecast rationality, which entails the following requirements: the forecast and the actual series i) have...

Abstract Forecasting rainfall in the tropics is a major challenge for numerical weather prediction. Convection-permitting (CP) models are intended to enable forecasts of high-impact events. Development and operation these has only just been realised. This study describes evaluates suite recently developed Met Office Unified Model CP ensemble over three domains Southeast Asia, covering Malaysia,...

We evaluate US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts of the world petroleum market, emphasising importance taking a multivariate perspective, considering asymmetric loss and allowing for time-variation. Forecasts total demand, supply, stock withdrawals oil prices are biased, with biases that change over time differ across variables. A function takes into account asymmetry interdepen...

Due to the rapid increase in deployment and high penetration of solar power generation worldwide, solar power generation forecasting has become critical to variable generation integration planning, and within utility and independent system operator (ISO) operations. Utilities and ISOs require day ahead and hour ahead as well as intra-hour solar power forecasts for core operations solar power pr...

Precipitation forecasts provided by high-resolution NWP models have a degree of realism that is very appealing to most users meteorological data. However, it challenge demonstrate whether or not such contain more skillful information than their lower resolution counterparts. A verification procedure must be based on equally detailed observations are also realistic in areas where ground availabl...