This paper analyses the impact of retailer overconfidence psychology on incentive contract for a manufacturer-retailer supply chain, where product quality is affected by the manufacturer and the retailer’s behaviors. There exists double-sided moral hazard in the supply chain. Using principal-agent model, this paper builds incentive contracts under symmetric and asymmetric information situations...

We propose a data mining approach for market managers that uses artificial neural networks (ANNs) guided by genetic algorithms (GAs). Our predictive model allows the selection of an optimal target point where expected profit from direct mailing is maximized. Our approach also produces models that are easier to interpret by using a smaller number of predictive features. Through sensitivity analy...

In this paper the scale mixture of Gaussian distribution is used to model the stock return data in financial market. There are many volatility models and forecasting methods. Some of the models are Historical volatility models, Implied volatility models, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity models, models based on Artificial Neural Network. All these models are direct models. In these ...

Deterministic mine planning models along a time horizon have proved to be very effective in supporting decisions on sequencing the extraction of material in copper mines. Some of these models have been developed for, and used successfully by CODELCO, the Chilean state copper company. In this paper, we wish to consider the uncertainty in a very volatile parameter of the problem, namely, the copp...

There is an abundant literature in finance on overconfidence, however there exists a different psychological trait well known to financial practitioners and psychologists [see Hilton at al. (2004)] which is optimism. This trait has received little attention. Our paper analyses the consequences of optimism and pessimism on financial markets. We develop a general model of optimism/pessimism where...

Commencing with Harberger's [1962] classic paper, a number of studies2 have analyzed the incidence of taxation in the context of a deterministic, two-sector, two-factor general equilibrium model. Recently, R. N. Batra [1975] and R. A. Ratti and P. Shome [1977a, 1977b] have reexamined the robustness of these deterministic results for the case in which production uncertainty is incorporated into ...

This paper investigates a risk-averse inventory model by balancing the expected profit and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) in a newsvendor model setting. We find out that: i) The optimal order quantity is increasing in the shortage cost for both the CVaR only criterion and the tradeoff objective. ii) For the case of zero shortage cost, the optimal order quantity to the CVaR criterion or tradeo...

We consider a finite horizon optimal stopping problem related to trade-off strategies between expected profit and cost cash-flows of an investment under uncertainty. The optimal problem is first formulated in terms of a system of Snell envelopes for the profit and cost yields which act as obstacles to each other. We then construct both a minimal and a maximal solutions using an approximation sc...

AIM Academic research investigating health care costs in the Palestinian region is limited. Therefore, this study examines the costs of the cardiac catheterization unit of one of the largest hospitals in Palestine. We focus on costs of a cardiac catheterization unit and the increasing number of deaths over the past decade in the region due to cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). METHODS We employ ...

In the newsvendor problem a decision maker orders inventory before a one period selling season with stochastic demand. If too much is ordered, stock is left over at the end of the period, whereas if too little is ordered, sales are lost. The expected profit-maximizing order quantity is well known, but little is known about how managers actually make these decisions. We describe two experiments ...