Time series modelling and forecasting is a vibrant research field that had attracted the interest of scientific community in recent decades. Forecasts agricultural prices are proposed to be useful for farmers, governments, policy makers agribusiness industries. In this study, an effort made compare capabilities well-known linear Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, Delay Ne...

iran has a complex topography and it consists of rugged, mountainous rims surrounding high interior basins. because of this condition, in some cases the nwp output has a significant error from mesoscale variations induced by the diverse topography.  iran, covering an area of about 1,648,000 km2, is located in the southwest of asia approximately between 25° and 40° n and 44° and 64° e. this is p...

Sound decision-making relies on accurate prediction for tangible outcomes ranging from military conflict to disease outbreaks. To improve crowdsourced forecasting accuracy, we developed SAGE, a hybrid system that combines human and machine generated forecasts. The provides platform where users can interact with models thus anchor their judgments an objective benchmark. also aggregates forecasts...

We evaluate the relative accuracy of real GDP forecasts made by 25 Japanese economists over the past 15 years. The encompassing test reveals the following results. (a) All of these forecasts outperform naïve forecasts. (b) Their current-year forecasts are inferior to the corresponding forecasts of VAR, VECM, or the Japanese government. (c) Their year-ahead forecasts are inferior to the correspo...

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A hybrid ensemble adjustment Kalman filter—three-dimensional ensemble—variational (EAKF-En3DVar) system is developed to assimilate conventional and radar data, and is applied to a convective case in Colorado and Kansas, USA. The system is based on the framework of the Weather Research and Forecasting model’s three-dimensional variational (3DVar) and Data Assimilation Research Testbed. A two-ste...

This study investigates the performance of combination forecasts in the context of international tourism demand. Five econometric and two time-series models are employed to generate individual forecasts. Six combination methods are then employed, and their forecasting performance evaluated, using data on UK outbound tourism demand in seven destination countries. The results suggest that combina...

Weather forecasts are produced to help people make decisions in weather sensitive situations, so an important aspect of forecast quality is the economic value of the forecasts to decision-makers in real applications. Assessing the economic value of weather forecasts in real-life operations can, however, be complex. The forecasts are usually only one of a number of factors influencing decisions,...

Macroeconomic forecasts are frequently produced, published, discussed and used. The formal evaluation of such forecasts has a long research history. Recently, a new angle to the evaluation of forecasts has been addressed, and in this review we analyse some recent developments from that perspective. The literature on forecast evaluation predominantly assumes that macroeconomic forecasts are gene...

Policy makers and businessmen demand real-time information and short-term forecasts about bed-nights occupied and the occupancy rate in hotel establishments (the latter being the percentage ratio of the number of bed nights occupied to the number of bed-nights on offer in the same period, usually one month). So, when these forecasts are obtained using single equations time series models, implic...