A fter losing the presidential elections in Iran in 2009, candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi and his supporters claimed electoral fraud and confronted the regime forces in bloody clashes. In January 2011, president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali (in office since 1987) fled Tunisia after massive demonstrations spread through the country. After that, a number of Arab countries experienced their own demonstra...

...................................................................................................................... vi LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. ix INTRODUCTION ...............................................................................................................1 MENA REGION PRE-ARAB ...

Will the Arab Spring lead to long-lasting democratic change? To explore this question I examine the determinants of the Arab world’s democratic deficit in 2010. I find that the percent of a country’s landmass that was conquered by Arab armies following the death of the prophet Muhammad statistically accounts for this deficit. Using history as a guide, I hypothesize that this pattern reflects th...