This paper focuses on the Bayesian posterior mean estimates (or Bayes’ estimate) of the parameter set of Poisson hidden Markov models in which the observation sequence is generated by a Poisson distribution whose parameter depends on the underlining discrete-time time-homogeneous Markov chain. Although the most commonly used procedures for obtaining parameter estimates for hidden Markov models ...

Hidden Markov models have become a popular tool for modeling long-term investment guarantees. Many different variations of hidden Markov models have been proposed over the past decades for modeling indexes such as the S&P 500, and they capture the tail risk inherent in the market to varying degrees. However, goodness-of-fit testing, such as residual-based testing, for hidden Markov models is a ...

In this paper, we utilized Hidden Markov Model (HMM) as a mapping mechanism between two different kinds of correlated signals. Specifically, we developed a voicedriven talking head system by exploiting the physical relationships between the shape of the mouth and the sound that is produced. The proposed system can be easily trained and a talking head can be efficiently animated. In the training...

We construct a family of Markov processes with continuous sample trajectories on an infinite-dimensional space, the Thoma simplex. The family depends on three continuous parameters, one of which, the Jack parameter, is similar to the beta parameter in random matrix theory. The processes arise in a scaling limit transition from certain finite Markov chains, the so called up-down chains on the Yo...

We study finite-state controllers (FSCs) for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). The key insight is that computing (randomized) FSCs on POMDPs is equivalent to synthesis for parametric Markov chains (pMCs). This correspondence enables using parameter synthesis techniques to compute FSCs for POMDPs in a black-box fashion. We investigate how typical restrictions on parameter ...

Spreadsheet workbook contents are simple programs. Because of this, probabilistic programming techniques can be used to perform Bayesian inversion of spreadsheet computations. What is more, existing execution engines in spreadsheet applications such as Microsoft Excel can be made to do this using only built-in functionality. We demonstrate this by developing a native Excel implementation of bot...