the main objective of this paper is to study the relationship between the energy consumption (energy use intensity), economic growth, and co2 emission in iran. to that end, we use time series data of iran during 1967–2004. in order to examine the long-run relationship among these variables, the johanson-juselius cointegration method is used along with vecm. the main finding of this study shows ...

abstract comparison of food prices in different periods, indicates fluctuations and continually upward trend. any change in agricultural sector variables, as main food supplier, will affect food price. productivity shocks and production gap are examples of such variables. in this paper ,hodrick prescott and kalman filters are used as generators of productivity shocks and production gap series. ...

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the interest rate pass-through euro area monetary policy to retail rates outside area, contributing literature on consequences unofficial financial euroisation and transmission channels spillovers. The results suggest that in long run, more than one third all euroised countries central, eastern south-eastern Europe (CESEE) are linked shadow rate. ...

The realized variance (RV) is known to be biased because intraday returns are contaminated with market microstructure noise, in particular if intraday returns are sampled at high frequencies. In this paper, we characterize the bias under a general specification for the market microstructure noise, where the noise may be autocorrelated and need not be independent of the latent price process. Wit...

Article history: Received 15 May 2014 Received in revised form 14 January 2015 Accepted 14 January 2015 Available online 22 January 2015 This paper estimates the degree of persistence of 16 long-horizon real exchange rates relative to the US dollar. We use nonparametric operational algorithms by El-Gamal and Ryu (2006) for general nonlinear models based on two statistical notions: the short mem...

We propose a tree-structured heterogeneous autoregressive (tree-HAR) process as a simple and parsimonious model for the estimation and prediction of tick-by-tick realized correlations. The model can account for different time and other relevant predictors’ dependent regime shifts in the conditional mean dynamics of the realized correlation series. Testing the model on S&P 500 and 30-year treasu...

This paper develops the methodology and asymptotic theory for the estimation of longrun variance of continuous time process. We analyze the asymptotic bias and variance of the longrun variance estimator in continuous time, and provide the optimal bandwidth balancing them o↵ and minimizing the asymptotic mean squared error. In the paper, we present not only how to consistently estimate the longr...

We consider the problem of estimating a measure of daily volatility from intermittent high-frequency data that are subject to market microstructure effects. We show that a simple Newey-West type modification of the realized variance (RV) yields an unbiased measure of volatility for the ‘open’ part of the day. The modified RV is unbiased even if 1-minute intra-day returns are used. Further, with...

This paper reviews and documents methodology for fitting hidden Markov switching models to New Zealand GDP data. A primary objective is to better understand the utility of these methods for modelling growth and volatility regimes present in the New Zealand data and their interaction. Properties of the models are developed together with a description of the estimation methods, including use of t...