The 2011 East Africa drought caused dire situations across several countries and led to a widespread and costly famine in the region. Numerous dynamic and statistical drought prediction models have been used for providing drought information and/or early warning. The concept of Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) has been successfully applied to univariate drought indicators (e.g., the Standar...

In many multiagent domains, no single observation event is sufficient to determine that the behavior of individuals is suspicious. Instead, suspiciousness must be inferred from a combination of multiple events, where events refer to the individual’s interactions with other individuals. Hence, a detection system must employ a detector that combines evidence frommultiple events, in contrast to mo...

in this study, a new efficient semi-analytical method is introduced to give approximate solutions of strongly nonlinear oscillators. the proposed method is based on combination of two different methods, the multi-step homotopy analysis method and spectral method, called the multi-step spectral homotopy analysis method (msham). in this method, firstly, we propose a new spectral homotopy analysis...

drought is random and nonlinear phenomenon and using linear stochastic models, nonlinear artificial neural network and hybrid models is advantaged for drought forecasting. this paper presents the performances of autoregressive integrated moving average (arima), direct multi-step neural network (dmsnn), recursive multi-step neural network (rmsnn), hybrid stochastic neural network of directive ap...

‎‎‎in this paper‎, ‎we develop multi-step methods to solve a class of two-dimensional nonlinear volterra integral equations (2d-nvies) of the first kind‎. ‎here‎, ‎we convert a 2d-nvie of the first kind to a one-dimensional linear vie of the first kind and then we solve the resulted equation numerically by multi-step methods‎. ‎we also verify convergence and error analysis of the method‎. ‎at t...

Decisions in the natural world are rarely made isolation. Each action that an organism selects will affect future situations which it finds itself, and those turn actions available. Achieving real-world goals often requires successfully navigating a sequence of many actions. An efficient flexible way to achieve such is construct internal model environment, use plan behavior multiple steps into ...

In this paper new implicit higher order accuracy (N-IHOA) time integration based on assumption of constant time step is presented for dynamic analysis. This method belongs to the category of the multi time step integrations. Here, current displacement and velocity are assumed to be functions of the velocities and accelerations of several previous time steps, respectively. This definition causes...