We model core demands for better governance (political, economic and institutional), more employment and less consumer price inflation using a methodological innovation on the complete elimination of cross-country differences in signals susceptible of sparking social revolts. The empirical evidence based on 14 MENA countries show that the Arab Spring was predictable in 2007 to occur between Jan...

A growth model is developed for an open dual economy. Th e economy expands due to a higher growth rate of labour productivity in the modern sector through the Kaldor-Verdoorn channel and higher eff ective demand through a Keynesian channel. Th e model incorporates a retardation mechanism aff ecting the slopes of productivity and output growth schedules as labour surplus and economies of scale d...

Total Factor Productivity (TFP) accounts for a sizable proportion of the income differences across countries. Two challenges remain to researchers aiming to explain these differences: on the one hand, TFP growth is hard to measure empirically; on the other hand, model uncertainty hampers consensus on its key determinants. This paper combines a non-parametric measure of TFP growth with Bayesian ...

The literature has suggested that financial development and electricity consumption are key determinants of economic growth. However, existing studies usually was applied the frequentist inference, which is an outdated estimator. By applying Bayesian approach via Metropolis-Hasting Gibbs samplers as MCMC methods, study aims to re-examine impact on growth in ASEAN+6 countries from 1980 2016. obt...

The relation between economic freedoms and performance is very crucial to determine growth the development policies of a country. Economic are ultimate goal for all developed emerging economies. countries have been aiming sustain their current situation, while developing apply that will provide development. Convergence hypothesis which one main inference Solow model states that, in close econom...

We study the causal connection between trade and development using one of the earliest massive trade expansions in prehistory: the first systematic crossing of open seas in the Mediterranean during the time of the Phoenicians. For each point on the coast, we construct the ease with which other points can be reached by crossing open water. This connectivity differs depending on the shape of the ...

Fujita, Krugman and Venables (FKV) develop a model in which international wage differentials encourage industrial mobility because the advantages provided by strong inputoutput linkages within high cost countries are offset by the benefits of locating in low wage economies. In this paper we argue that globalization has another important dimension. Shocks may originate in a single country but, w...

We propose an economic theory of infectious disease transmission and rational behavior. Diseases are costly due to mortality (premature death) and morbidity (lower productivity and quality of life). The theory offers three main insights. First, higher disease prevalence implies lower saving-investment propensity. Preventive behavior can partially offset this when the prevalence rate and negativ...

We estimate productivities at the sector level for 75 countries and 5 decades, and examine how they evolve over time in both developed and developing countries. We find that in both country groups, comparative advantage has become weaker: productivity grew systematically faster in sectors that were initially at the greater comparative disadvantage. The global welfare implications of this phenom...

Resource misallocation lowers aggregate productive effi ciency. The existing literature often infers the magnitude of misallocation from the dispersion of average revenue products. However, the methodology is subject to several identification issues. In particular, the estimator would be upward biased by the presence of unobserved heterogeneities in output and demand elasticities; adjustment co...