In this paper we investigate the effect of oil price shocks on stock market index in Iran, by using of a structural VAR (SVAR) approach. We used four variables in the model namely Kilian index, global oil supply, real oil price and real stock market index. The data are monthly and spanning the period 1997M10-2014M12. We identify the effect of four different shocks on stock market including oil ...

a r t i c l e i n f o A global computable general equilibrium model is used to analyze the economic impacts of rising oil prices with endogenously determined availability of biofuels to mitigate those impacts. The negative effects on the global economy are comparable to those found in other studies, but the impacts are unevenly distributed across countries/regions or sectors. The agricultural s...

This paper investigated the reaction of aggregate commodity market to oil price shocks and also explored the effects of oil price shocks on China's fundamental industries: metals, petrochemicals, grains and oilfats. We separated the volatilities of oil price into expected, unexpected and negatively expected categories to identify how oil prices influence bulk commodity markets. We contrasted th...

a r t i c l e i n f o Most CGE models are real and cannot be easily used to study monetary policies. This paper develops a financial CGE model with interaction between real and financial side of the Chinese economy and applies the model to study oil price shocks and monetary policy responses. Unlike macro models in the current literature, the financial CGE model can be implemented to look into ...

a central problem ill empirical macroeconomics is to determine when and how much the exchange rate is misaligned. this paper clarifies and calculates the concept of’ the equilibrium real exchange rate, using a structural vector auto regression (var) model. by imposing long—run restrictions on a var model for iran, lour structural shocks are identified: nominal demand, real demand, supply and oi...

This paper employs disaggregated manufacturing data to investigate the causes of the time delay between an increase in oil prices and the following slowdown in economic activity. VAR results show that, unlike aggregate GDP, the effect of an oil price shock on new motor vehicles production shows up immediately and is statistically significantly. After one quarter, similar patterns are observed f...

John Taylor has produced a comprehensive and insightful paper. He begins by reviewing what he calls the “Great Inflation,” the period of the 1970s and early 1980s. Following Brad De Long’s observation that by the early 1970s, well before the oil shocks, baseline U.S. inflation was already in the 4 percent to 5 percent range, John Taylor rejects the hypothesis that the oil price shocks of the pe...

A model with costly adjustment of production and costly inventories implies that wholesale gasoline prices will respond with a lag to crude oil cost shocks. Unlike explanations that rely upon menu costs, imperfect information, or long-term buyer/seller relationships, this model also predicts that futures prices for gasoline will adjust incompletely to crude oil price shocks that occur close to ...