This paper identifies optimal interest-rate rules within a rich, dynamic, general equilibrium model that has been shown to account well for observed aggregate dynamics in the postwar United States. We perform policy evaluations based on second-order accurate approximations to conditional and unconditional expected welfare. We require that interest-rate rules be operational, in the sense that th...

In brane inflationary scenarios, the cosmological perturbations are supposed to originate from the vacuum fluctuations of the inflaton field corresponding to the position of the brane. We show that a significant, and possibly dominant, contribution to the curvature perturbation is generated at the end of inflation through the vacuum fluctuations of fields, other than the inflaton, which are lig...

We study optimal monetary policy design in a simple model that deviates from the linear-quadratic paradigm and provides a rationale for the practice of inflation zone targeting. We show that the presence of either zone-quadratic preferences or a zonelinear relationship between inflation and economic activity provides strong incentives to deviate from conventional linear policies. We calibrate t...

The central banks of New Zealand, Canada, and the United Kingdom have recently decided to make price stability the overriding goal of monetary policy. Similar proposals in the United States have received a lukewarm reception. Although some opponents have argued that moderate inflation is beneficial, many concede its effect on economic welfare is detrimental.1 Instead, they argue that a price st...

This paper characterizes the optimal inflation buffer consistent with a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates in a New Keynesian sticky-price model. It is shown that a purely forward-looking version of the model that abstracts from inflation inertia would significantly underestimate the inflation buffer. If the central bank follows the prescriptions of a welfare-theoretic objective, a larg...

In this paper, we study the potential of stocks as a hedge against inflation for different investment horizons. We show that stocks can be a hedge against inflation even if stock returns are negatively correlated with unexpected inflation shocks, and only moderately positively related to expected inflation. Depending on the investment horizon, the optimal hedge ratio can be either positive or n...

The paper constructs various core inflation measures. These include various trimmed means using disaggregated data and a structural VAR estimate of core inflation for Ireland. The ability of these core inflation measures to forecast future headline inflation is compared using a regression model. An ARIMA model fitted to the headline inflation rate is used as the benchmark forecast. The forecast...