We show that the dividend growth rate implied by the futures market is informative about (i) the expected dividend growth rate and (ii) the expected dividend risk premium. We model the dividend risk premium and explore its implications for the predictability of dividend growth and aggregate stock returns. We show that accounting for the dividend risk premium strengthens the predictability of di...

Analysis of the equity premium puzzle has focused on private-sector capital markets. However, the existence of an anomalous equity premium raises important issues in the evaluation of public-sector investment projects. These issues are explored below. We begin by formalizing the argument that an equity premium may arise from uninsurable systematic risk in labour income, and show that, other thi...

This paper describes a neural network modelling approach to premium price sensitivity of insurance policy holders. Clustering is used to classify policy holders into homogeneous risk groups. Within each cluster a neural network is then used to predict retention rates given demographic and policy information, including the premium change from one year to the next. It is shown that the prediction...

The realized size and value premia reflect earnings-induced price surprises that do not fit the rational pricing story. In addition, they seem to have little to do with systematic risks. This is because the majority of value or small firms with persistently high systematic risks are not rewarded with a premium. The premium happens, as a price adjustment, only to the subset of migrating firms wh...

This paper studies the forward premium puzzle in an environment where private agents do not perfectly observe the shocks that drive monetary policy. Private agents optimally update their conditional expectations by means of the Kalman filter. The transition dynamics associated with Kalman filtering lead to fixed time-effects and conditional heteroskedasticity in the forward premium regression. ...

We study the relative risk of value and growth stocks. We find that time-varying risk goes in the right direction in explaining the value premium. Value betas tend to covary positively, and growth betas tend to covary negatively with the expected market risk premium. Our inference differs from that of previous studies because we sort betas on the expected market risk premium, instead of on the ...

A competitive market for individual health insurance tends to risk-adjusted premiums. Premium rate restrictions are often considered a tool to increase access to coverage for high-risk individuals in such a market. However, such regulation induces selection which may have several adverse effects. As an alternative approach we consider risk-adjusted premium subsidies. Empirical results of simula...

Recently the optimal reinsurance strategy concerning the insurer’s risk attitude and the reinsurance premium principle is an interesting topic. This paper discusses the optimal reinsurance problem with the insurer’s risk measured by distortion risk measure and the reinsurance premium calculated by a general principle including expected premium principle and Wang’s premium principle as its speci...

It is well-known that reinsurance can be an effective risk management solution for financial institutions such as the insurance companies. The optimal reinsurance solution depends on a number of factors including the criterion of optimization and the premium principle adopted by the reinsurer. In this paper, we analyze the Value-at-Risk (VaR) based optimal risk management solution using reinsur...