We analyze the valuation of American options under the forward performance criterion introduced by Musiela and Zariphopoulou (2008). In this framework, the performance criterion evolves forward in time without reference to a specific future time horizon. Moreover, risk preferences change with stochastic market conditions, which is natural as investors are clearly more risk averse in economic do...

Paralleling regulatory developments, we devise value-at-risk and expected shortfall type risk measures for the potential losses arising from using misspecified models when pricing and hedging contingent claims. Essentially, losses from model risk correspond to losses realized on a perfectly hedged position. Model uncertainty is expressed by a set of pricing models, relative to which potential l...

We compare the disclosure risk criterion of ε-differential privacy with a criterion based on probabilities that intruders uncover actual values given the released data. To do so, we generate fully synthetic data that satisfy ε-differential privacy at different levels of ε, make assumptions about the information available to intruders, and compute posterior probabilities of uncovering true value...

This paper analyzes optimal investment policies for pension funds of a defined benefit (DB) type. The nature of a DB fund induces a natural modeling of preferences being of the mean-downside risk type. With compensation for inflation as an explicit goal of a pension fund, a natural reference point for the risk measure is the future (indexed) value of the liabilities. Results are presented for d...

design of a logistics network in proper way provides a proper platform for efficient and effective supply chain management. this paper studies a multi-period, multi echelon and multi-product integrated forward-reverse logistics network under uncertainty. first, an efficient complex mixed-integer linear programming (milp) model by considering some real-world assumptions is developed for the inte...

Using a large panel of firms across the world from 1991-2006, we show that the median foreign firm has lower idiosyncratic risk than a comparable U.S. firm. Country characteristics help explain variation in the level of idiosyncratic risk, but less so than firm characteristics. Idiosyncratic risk falls as government stability and respect for the rule of law improve. Idiosyncratic risk is positi...

In practice, risk and uncertainty are essentially unavoidable in many regulation processes. Regulators frequently face a risk-benefit trade-off since zero risk is neither practicable nor affordable. Although it is accepted that cost–benefit analysis is important in many scenarios of risk management, what role it should play in a decision process is still controversial. One criticism of cost–ben...

The purposes of this paper are two-fold. On the one hand, we shall provide a decision analysis justification for the Value at Risk (VaR) approach based on ex-post, disappointment decision making arguments. We shall show that the VaR approach is justified by a disappointment criterion. In other words, the asymmetric valuation between ex-ante expected returns above an appropriate target return an...

Portfolio management in finance is more than a mathematical problem of optimizing performance under risk constraints. A critical factor in practical portfolio problems is severe uncertainty – ignorance – due to model uncertainty. In this paper, we show how to find the best portfolios by adapting the standard risk-return criterion for portfolio selection to the case of severe uncertainty, such a...