نتایج جستجو برای: seasonal forecast
تعداد نتایج: 91529 فیلتر نتایج به سال:
The modern era of seasonal climate forecasts began in the late 1980s with the first successful retrospective predictions of the large 1982–83 El Niño/Southern Oscillation event using a dynamical model (Cane et al., 1986). Today, seasonal predictions are issued routinely at many national and international centers including IRI, based on both dynamical and statistical models (see Goddard et al., ...
This paper proposes a hybrid forecasting model, which combines the seasonal time series ARIMA (SARIMA) and the neural network back propagation (BP) models, known as SARIMABP. This model was used to forecast two seasonal time series data of total production value for Taiwan machinery industry and the soft drink time series. The forecasting performance was compared among four models, i.e., the SA...
Stochastic methods are increasingly used in global coupled model climate forecasting systems to account for model uncertainties. In this paper, we describe in more detail the stochastic dynamics technique introduced by Batté and Déqué (2012) in the ARPEGE-Climate atmospheric model. We present new results with an updated version of CNRMCM using ARPEGE-Climate v6.1, and show that the technique ca...
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