The predictive accuracy of various econometric models, including random walks, vector autoregressive and vector error-correction models, are investigated using daily futures prices of 4 commodities (the S&P500 index, treasury bonds, gold and crude oil). All models are estimated using a rolling window approach, and evaluated by both in-sample and out-of-sample performance measures. The criteria ...

This paper investigates the effects of shocks to U.S. monetary policy on the dollar/yen exchange rate, using structural Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) methods. We compare our estimates of the impulse responses with those based on levels Vector Autoregression. We also compare results from short run and long run restrictions imposed on the structural VECM. We find evidence of overshooting b...

Abstract In order to study energy consumption in Iran's agricultural sector, a Genetic algorithm concept was used to calculate significant factors affecting energy consumption between 1974 and 2008. Then, durability or "stability" of variables was assessed through econometric method (Augmented Dickey-Fuller test). In addition, long-term and short-term relationships of energy consumption were es...

Purpose of this paper is twofold. It is first to offer a rough overview on the field of threshold cointegration, from the seminal paper of Balke and Fomby (1997) to the recent developments. Simultaneously, it is to describe the implementation of the main functionalities for the modeling in the open-source package tsDyn. It provides hence a unique way to get an introduction on the threshold coin...

Using a set of cointegration and error correction models with Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) or Momentum Threshold Autoregressive (MTAR) asymmetric adjustment, we investigate whether the effects of fiscal policy (i.e. expansionary or contractionary government spending shocks) on interest rates in Japan are asymmetric or not. Forty years of quarterly series on price of oil, Consumer Price Index ...

e?cient fault-tolerant quantum computing arxiv fault-tolerant quantum computing crcnetbase an introduction to quantum error correction and fault quantum error correction and fault tolerant quantum computing fault tolerance in quantum computation eceu fault-tolerant quantum computation world scientific fault -tolerant quantum computation versus realistic noise quantum error correction and fault-...

in this study, the relationship between inflation and economic growth of iran is conciliated with a perspective on uncertainty of inflation. we use a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (garch) model that make possible this advantage that conditional variance of error term changes along the time, also, vector error correction model (vecm) is stable. for surveying the co-in...