We study adaptive learning in a monetary overlapping generations model with sticky prices and monopolistic competition for the case where learning agents observe current endogenous variables. Observability of current variables is essential for informational consistency of the learning setup with the model set up but generates multiple temporary equilibria when prices are flexible and prevents a...

K e y w o r d s: prediction, model comparison, density forecasting, inflation, VAR models, shrinkage. J E L Classification: E31, E37, C53, C32.

In this paper we develop the first search-theoretic monetary model of a two-country global economy. We show the connection between deep monetary frictions (i.e. search and matching frictions), capital holdup externalities, and the realization of an endogenous departure from the “excess smoothness” problem in the real exchange rate found in standard models. Using this alternative monetary model,...

Two sources of asymmetry in the Phillips curve are considered: the “capacity constraint hypothesis” and downward rigidity on wages and/or prices. The short run trade-off between inflation changes and the unemployment gap is modeled in a state-space framework that allows for time variation in both the NAIRU and the trade-off parameter. Empirical evidence for the US using the Kalman filter favors...

Inflation targeting needs to be supplemented by an economic growth target so that central banks will not adopt monetary policy which results in stagnation. There is no guarantee that the economy will move towards full employment by itself when the inflation rate is kept between two to three per cent. Monetary policy does not have a comparative advantage in achieving price stability. Svensson's ...

On one monthly time-series data set of Vietnam economy over 02/2008–09/2018, the Time-Varying-Coefficient VAR model records that trade-off between inflation and output growth is mitigated by foreign capital inflows. The mostly determined credit supply growth, while largely driven direct investment (FDI) A increase FDI USD 1 billion can raise 1.77% rate. result also holds on accounting for excha...

This paper analyzes the effects of lower bound for interest rates on distributions inflation and rates. In a New Keynesian model with bound, two equilibria emerge: policy is mostly unconstrained in “target equilibrium,” whereas constrained “liquidity trap equilibrium.” Using options data inflation, we find forecast densities consistent target equilibrium no evidence favor liquidity equilibrium....

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. This paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodo...

We developed a simple monetary model to study the effects of tax evasion on the optimal inflation tax. The model is constructed so that inflation might be an indirect way of taxing the underground sector of the economy. We show that while there are theoretical reasons for positive optimal inflation rates, the effects are quantitatively small, even in countries with large underground sectors. We...

Ito has applied the non-Walrasian regime switching methodology to the Solovian neoclassical growth model and discussed the occurrence of regimes of full employment, overemployment and underemployment and the different dynamical systems (to be patched up) these regimes give rise to. We shall show in this paper that nothing of this sort really characterizes Solovian growth with non market-clearin...