This paper models limit order books where each trader is uncertain of the underlying distribution in the asset’s value to others. If this uncertainty is rapidly resolved, fleeting limit orders are submitted and quickly cancelled. This enhances liquidity supply, but leaves intact established comparative statics results on spreads. However, risk neutral liquidity suppliers are averse to persisten...

This paper presents the partial analytical solution to a model of periodic consumption that incorporates imperfect capital markets and uncertainty. Our model assumes that consumption decisions occur more frequently than income receipt. We show that the week specific consumption functions can be ordered. At low levels of wealth these functions exhibit a “ushaped” pattern between income receipts....

Contrary to the models of deterministic life cycle saving, we take it for granted that uncertainty of one’s future is the essential problem of saving decisions. However, unlike the stochastic life cycle models, we capture this crucial uncertainty by a non-Bayesian scenario-based satisficing approach. Decision makers first form aspirations for a few relevant scenarios, and then search for saving...

This paper analyzes the investment timing for team projects. Under demand uncertainty, it is valuable to maintain flexibility in future investment alternatives. However, one party’s flexibility creates strategic uncertainty for another party, which causes the other party to choose a higher level of flexibility. This strategic complementarity leads to delays in investments in contrast to the cas...

Standard practice in empirical research is based on two steps: first, researchers select a model from the space of all possible models; second, they proceed as if the selected model had generated the data. Therefore, uncertainty in the model selection step is typically ignored. Alternatively, model averaging accounts for this model uncertainty. In this paper, I review the literature on model av...

Many economic decisions can be described as an option exercise or optimal stopping problem under uncertainty. Motivated by experimental evidence such as the Ellsberg Paradox, we follow Knight (1921) and distinguish risk from uncertainty. To afford this distinction, we adopt the multiple-priors utility model. We show that the impact of ambiguity on the option exercise decision depends on the rel...

We formalize the idea that uncertainty is generated by news about future developments in economic conditions which are not perfectly predictable by the agents. With a simple model of limited information we show that uncertainty shocks can be obtained as the square of news shocks. We develop a two-step econometric procedure to estimate the effects of news and we find highly nonlinear effects. La...

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the euro area, and investigates the linkages between them in a VAR framework, also allowing for the possible impact of the policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and inflation uncertainty have declined st...

Stress in financial markets influences economic agents’ behavior by creating uncertainty and changing the expectations. Critical financial stress can lead to financial crisis. Financial crises are among the events always present in the world economy. Iran is not an exception. This paper aims to study the impact of financial stresses on Iran’s per capita GDP. By using ARDL (Auto Regressive Distr...

This paper generalizes the discussion about disagreement versus uncertainty in macroeconomic survey data by emphasizing the importance of the (unknown) true predictive density. Using a forecast combination approach, we ask whether crosssections of survey point forecasts help to approximate the true predictive density. We find that although these cross-sections perform poorly individually, their...