We examine the yield curve behavior and the relative performance of affine term structure models using government bond yield data from Canada, Germany, Japan, UK, and US. We find strong predictability of forward rates for excess bond returns and reject the expectations hypothesis across all five countries. A three-factor model is sufficient to capture movements in the yield curve of Canada, Jap...

et al., 1967; Zorab et al., 1970). Allison, Walker, and Smith (1966) showed that the ratio of total hydroxyproline to creatinine in a 24-hour collection of urine gives more consistent results than measurement of hydroxyproline alone, an observation which has been extended to random samples of urine collected during waking hours (Howells, Wharton, and McCance, 1967; Younoszai et al., 1969). Whar...

This paper presents a new approach to the simulation ranking and selection problem, one that maximizes the expected NPV of decisions made when using stochastic simulation. Our formulation assumes that facilities exist to simulate a fixed number of alternative projects, and we pose the problem as a “stoppable” version of a Bayesian bandit problem. We show that, under relatively general condition...

We conduct a series of field experiments to evaluate the quality of advice provided by life insurance agents in India. Agents overwhelmingly recommend unsuitable, strictly dominated products, which provide high commissions to the agent. Agents cater to the beliefs of uninformed consumers, even when those beliefs are wrong. We test whether regulation or the market can improve advice. A natural e...

Using a unique sample of unscheduled disclosures of material corporate events constructed from over 500,000 8-K filings, we find significant heterogeneity in the timeliness of information disclosure, both across and within firms. We first establish disclosure timeliness as an important firm decision affected by event characteristics. We then demonstrate that this timing dimension of information...

Eric K. clEmons is Professor of Operations and Information Management at the Wharton School of the university of Pennsylvania. his education includes an S.b. in Physics from MIt, and an M.S. and Ph.D. in Operations research from cornell university. he has been a pioneer in the systematic study of the transformational effects of information on the strategy and practice of business. his research ...

A large and growing literature has demonstrated that explicit incentives, such as enforceable contracts, can lead agents to withhold effort. We investigate when this behavioral result arises and identify when principals do worse from using enforceable contracts with their agents. In an extensive laboratory experiment, we find that imposing control through an enforceable contract is only detrime...