This article proposes a functional dynamic factor model for the evaluation of the impact of scalar– and curve–valued factors on the shapes of intraday price curves. The asymptotic theory leads to practically useful confidence intervals for the factor coefficients. The main findings pertain to the impact of the shapes of intraday oil futures on the shapes of intraday prices of blue chip stocks. ...

The paper analyses a simplified version of a Glosten-Milgrom style specialist security trading model with trade-timing. In a setting where traders are differentially informed, if the best-informed investors have a sufficiently strong or weak impact on prices then the investors with the strongest impact on prices delay their investment strategically, pretending to be the low-impact types. JEL Cl...

I analyze annual returns of the S&P 500 from 1993 – 1998. Future returns of the market are predicted using current dividend yield levels, past risk free returns and a standard deviation variable over the preceding five years. Evidence from the article suggests that future returns can be predicted when combing dividend yields with recent volatility in the market. This article suggests that recen...

Recently, stock exchanges have altered their trading fees to subsidize liquidity by offering “make” rebates for providing liquidity through limit orders and charging “take” fees for consuming liquidity via marketable orders, leading to debate regarding the impact of these fees on market quality. Using an exogenous experiment performed by NASDAQ in 2015, I employ difference-in-differences analys...

Abstract The aim of this paper is to analyze the long-lasting dynamic relationship between credit default swap (CDS) premia and government bond spreads (GBS), with regard sovereign risk. practical focus evaluate whether CDS market effectively leading or lagging in risk price discovery process during last decade monetary easing. analysis extends all “sensitive” countries Eurozone, so-called “PII...

In an asset-pricing model, risk-averse agents need to forecast the conditional variance of a stock’s return. A near-rational restricted perceptions equilibrium exists in which agents believe prices follow a random walk with a conditional variance that is self-fulfilling. When agents estimate risk in real-time, recurrent bubbles and crashes can arise. These effect are stronger when agents allow ...

I examine the informational contributions and effects on transitory volatility of trades initiated by different types of traders in three actively traded index futures markets. The results show that trades initiated by exchange member firms account for more than 60% of price discovery during the trading day. These institutional trades appear to be more informative than trades of individual exch...