Outcome bias occurs when an evaluator considers ex-post outcomes when judging whether a choice was correct, ex-ante. We formalize this cognitive bias in a simple model of distorted Bayesian updating. We then examine strategy changes made by professional football coaches. We find they are more likely to revise their strategy after a loss than a win — even for narrow losses, which are uninformati...

We prove that a good Ḣp critical theory for the 3D wave equation ∂ttu − △u = −|u|p−1u can be extended to prove global well-posedness of smooth solutions of at least one 3D barely Ḣp supercritical wave equation ∂ttu −△u = −|u|p−1ug(|u|), with g growing slowly to infinity, provided that a Kenig-Merle type condition is satisfied. This result extends those [26, 18] obtained for the particular case ...