Multimodal traffic flow can reflect the health of transportation system, and its prediction is crucial to urban management. Recent works overemphasize spatio-temporal correlations flow, ignoring physical concepts that lead generation observations their causal relationship. Spatio-temporal are considered unstable under influence different conditions, spurious may exist in observations. In this p...

The instrumental variable (IV) approach is a widely used way to estimate the causal effects of treatment on an outcome interest from observational data with latent confounders. A standard IV expected be related and independent all other variables in system. However, it challenging search for directly due strict conditions. conditional (CIV) method has been proposed allow instrument conditioning...

Correctly assessing the consequences of events is essential for a successful interaction with the world. It not only requires a causal understanding of the world but also the ability to distinguish whether a given event is the result of an agent’s own action (intervention) or simply the consequence of the world being in action (observation). Previous studies have shown that humans can learn cau...

Many social scientists and researchers across a wide range of fields focus on analyzing a single causal dependency or a conditional model of some outcome variable. However, to reason about interventions or conditional independence, it is useful to construct a joint model of a domain. Researchers in computer science, statistics, and philosophy have developed representations (e.g., Bayesian netwo...

The relation between rate distortion function (RDF) and Bayesian filtering theory is discussed. The relation is established by imposing a causal or realizability constraint on the reconstruction conditional distribution of the RDF, leading to the definition of a causal RDF. Existence of the optimal reconstruction distribution of the causal RDF is shown using the topology of weak convergence of ...

In two experiments, we examined the prediction that there should be a relation between the speed with which subjects can retrieve potential causes for given effects and their reasoning with causal conditional premises (if cause P, then effect Q). It was also predicted that when subjects are given effects for which there exists a single strongly associated cause, speed of retrieval of a second p...

It is argued that causal understanding originates in experiences of acting on objects. Such experiences have consistent features that can be used as clues to causal identification and judgment. These are singular clues, meaning that they can be detected in single instances. A catalog of 14 singular clues is proposed. The clues function as heuristics for generating causal judgments under uncerta...

We present results that allow the researcher in certain cases to determine the direction of the bias that arises when control for confounding is inadequate. The results are given within the context of the directed acyclic graph causal framework and are stated in terms of signed edges. Rigorous definitions for signed edges are provided. We describe cases in which intuition concerning signed edge...