We study the effect of frequent trading opportunities and categorization on pricing of a risky asset. Frequent opportunities to trade can lead to large distortions in prices if some agents forecast future prices using a simplified model of the world that fails to distinguish between some states. In the limit as the period length vanishes, these distortions take a particular form: the price must...

Occupational segregation by gender is prevalent and can explain some of the gender wage gap. I empirically investigate a possible explanation for this segregation: the gender difference in preferences for competition, which in recent experimental studies has been found to affect economic outcomes. My findings suggest that women’s greater distaste for competition decreases educational achievemen...

This paper extends Woodford’s (2010) approach to the robustly monetary policy to a general linear quadratic framework. We provide algorithms to solve for a time-invariant linear robustly optimal policy from a timeless perspective and for a time-invariant linear Markov perfect equilibrium under discretion. We apply our methods to a New Keynesian model of monetary policy with persistent cost-push...

Using the standard real business cycle model with lump-sum taxes, we analyze the impact of fiscal policy when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations (RE). The output multipliers for government purchases are significantly higher under learning, and fall within empirical bounds reported in the literature (in sharp contrast to the implausibly low values ...

By disrupting the mapping from intended choice to realized outcome, psychological pressure can confound revealed preference-based inference. Seemingly loss averse behavior may not reflect such preferences over outcomes. We analyze NBA free-throw shooting and exploit differential levels of pressure induced by game location. Home players suffer an accuracy decline when a shot’s chance of impactin...

Using the standard real business cycle model with lump-sum taxes, we analyze the impact of fiscal policy when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations (RE). The output multipliers for government purchases are significantly higher under learning, and fall within empirical bounds reported in the literature (in sharp contrast to the implausibly low values ...

In recent “learning to forecast” experiments (Hommes et al. 2005), three different patterns in aggregate price behavior have been observed: slow monotonic convergence, permanent oscillations, and dampened fluctuations. We show that a simple model of individual learning can explain these different aggregate outcomes within the same experimental setting. The key idea is evolutionary selection amo...

A weighted replicator dynamic describes how agents switch between a forecast based on fundamentals, a rational bubble forecast and a re‡ective forecast, a weighted average of the former two. If the innovations to the extraneous martingale have a similar magnitude to those of the dividend process and agents are su¢ ciently aggressive in switching forecasting strategies, a signi…cant portion of t...

The quadratic scoring rule (QSR) is often used to guarantee an incentive compatible elicitation of subjective probabilities over events. Experimentalists have regularly not been able to ensure that subjects fully comprehend the consequences of their actions on payoffs given the rules of the games. In this note, we present a procedure that allows the transparent use of the QSR even in multiple-c...