This paper introduces a new multinomial approach unifying the computation of confidence intervals for Markovian models. Starting from a method used for homogeneous Markov chains, we show that it can be applied on models incorporating a hidden component. We consider three models derived from the basic homogeneous Markov chain: the Mixture Transition Distribution (MTD) model, the Hidden Markov Mo...

A growing empirical literature documents that social communication a ects individual trading behavior and market trading patterns in nancial markets. Motivated by this evidence, I develop an asset pricing model a la Kyle (1985) in which agents communicate information in social networks prior to trading. In particular, an agent who is more con dent in her private information puts greater weight ...

High-throughput experimental methods, such as yeast-two-hybrid and phage display, have fairly high levels of false positives (and false negatives). Thus the list of protein-protein interactions detected by such experiments would need additional wet laboratory validation. It would be useful if the list could be prioritized in some way. Advances in computational techniques for assessing the relia...

We report three experiments comparing con®dence judgments made by actors and by observers. In Experiment 1, actors generated qualitative answers (countries of the world) in a country-identi®cation task; in Experiment 2, actors generated quantitative answers (years) in a historical event-dating task. Both actors and observers indicated their con®dence in the actors' answers. Actors were signi®ca...

Nonparametric methods are becoming popular recently in estimating continuous-time di¤usion models due to their ‡exibility. This paper provides a new approach to constructing point-wise con…dence intervals for nonparametric drift and di¤usion functions via empirical likelihood (EL) in conjunction with local linear smoothing. It serves as a promising competitor to the conventional asymptotic norm...

A multi-period market model is developed to examine the evolution of risk averse agents' con dence degrees in learning their abilities to obtain precise information and the properties of resulting market trading patterns in price volatility, trading volume, and expected pro ts. Agents initially do not know their abilities which are related to the qualities of private signals. They assess abilit...

The automatic speech recognition currently arouses a great interest. In particular, the keyword detection which constitutes a signi cant branch of the human-machine interaction and which can help us to communicate with our machines in a natural and direct way by using spontaneous speech. This technique consists in detecting in a pronounced sentence, the keywords characterizing the application a...

We study social learning in a continuous action space experiment. Subjects, acting in sequence, state their belief about the value of a good, after observing their predecessors' statements and a private signal. We compare the behavior in the laboratory with the Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium prediction and the predictions of bounded rationality models of decision making: the redundancy of informa...