n recent years, there has been a significant evolution in the formulation and communication of monetary policy at a number of central banks around the world. Many of these banks now present their economic outlook and policy strategies to the public in a more formal way, a process accompanied by the introduction of modern analytical tools and advanced econometric methods in forecasting and polic...

I investigate how a model that assumes learning might interact with a rational expectations data generating process. Milani (2007b) asserts that if agents are learning and there is no conditional heteroscedasticity then an econometrician may be fooled into estimating ARCH/GARCH models. In addition, I evaluate the contribution of a new endogenous gain, which I have proposed in previous paper, ma...

In this paper, we present an alternative strategy for estimation of DSGE models when data is available at di¤erent time intervals. Our method is based on a data augmentation technique within Bayesian estimation of structural models and allows us to jointly use data at di¤erent frequencies. The bene…ts achieved via this methodology will be twofold, resolution of time aggregation bias and identi…...

Real Expectations: Replacing Rational Expectations with Survey Expectations in Dynamic Macro Models Jeff Fuhrer Abstract: This paper examines the implications of changing the expectations assumption that is embedded in nearly all current macroeconomic models. The paper substitutes measured or “real” expectations for rational expectations in an array of standard macroeconomic relationships, as w...

The recent financial crisis has raised several questions with respect to the financial institutions and banking industry. Hence, over the last decade the Iranian banking industry has undergone many substantial changes, such as liberalization, government regulation and technological advances. What impacts do these changes have on the policy instruments? We have answered this question in this stu...

Over the past 15 years there has been remarkable progress in the specification and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Central banks in developed and emerging market economies have become increasingly interested in their usefulness for policy analysis and forecasting. This paper reviews some issues and challenges surrounding the use of these models at central ban...

Recent literature points out that key variables such as aggregate productivity and in‡ation display long memory dynamics. We study the implications of this high degree of persistence on the estimation of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. We …rst show that long memory data can produce substantial bias in the deep parameter estimates when a standard Kalman Filter-MLE procedure...

So far the literature on DSGE models with energy price shocks uses energy on the production side only. In these models, energy shocks are responsible for only a negligible share of output fluctuations. We study the robustness of this finding. The aim of our paper is to model the response of household behavior to energy shocks in more detail as in the existing literature. Specifically, in additi...