We introduce a new notion of ex ante stability (or fairness) that would be desirable for a school-choice mechanism to satisfy. Our criterion stipulates that a mechanism must be stable based solely on the probabilities that each student will be assigned to different schools, i.e., the assignment must be viewed as stable even before students know which school they will end up going to. This is in...

Citation: Luedeling E, Oord AL, Kiteme B, Ogalleh S, Malesu M, Shepherd KD and De Leeuw J (2015) Fresh groundwater for Wajir—ex-ante assessment of uncertain benefits for multiple stakeholders in a water supply project in Northern Kenya. Front. Environ. Sci. 3:16. doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2015.00016 Fresh groundwater for Wajir—ex-ante assessment of uncertain benefits for multiple stakeholders in a wat...

Despite extraordinary global progress in increasing coverage of antiretroviral treatment (ART), the majority of people needing ART currently are not receiving treatment. Both the number of people needing ART and the average ART price per patient-year are expected to increase in coming years, which will dramatically raise funding needs for ART. Several international organizations are using inter...

Ahrrwx-The informational content of ditlercnt forecasts can be compared by regressing the actual change in a variable to be forecasted on forecasts of the change. We we the procedure in Fair and Shikr (1987) to examine the informational content of three sets of ex ante forecasts: the American Statist&i Association and National Bureau of Economic Research Survey (ASP.). Data Resources Incorporat...

We find that the true ex ante equity premium very likely lies within 50 basis points of 3.5%. This estimate is similar to values obtained in some recent studies but is considerably more precise. In addition to narrowing the range of plausible ex ante equity premia, we also find that equity premium models that allow for time-variation, breaks, and/or trends are the models that best match the exp...

We consider collective choice from two alternatives. Ex ante, each agent is uncertain about which alternative she prefers, and may be uncertain about the intensity of her preferences. An environment is given by a probability distribution over preference-profiles that is symmetric across agents and neutral across alternatives. In many environments, the majority voting rule maximizes agents’ ex-a...

Traditional measures of consumer surplus (CS) have implicitly assumed that the quality expected is the same as the quality that is paid for ex ante. However, when product or service quality cannot be perfectly verified ex ante by consumers in markets with asymmetric information, and actual quality received may not necessarily equal quality expected, CS would not be precisely measured. In this p...

Traditional measures of consumer surplus (CS) have implicitly assumed that the quality expected is the same as the quality that is paid for ex ante. However, when product or service quality cannot be perfectly verified ex-ante by consumers in markets with asymmetric information, and actual quality received may not necessarily equal quality expected, CS would not be precisely measured. This may ...

The behavior of dynamically consistent agents who follow through with any ex ante optimal plan cannot be distinguished from the behavior of Bayesians. The notion of dynamic semi-consistency allows for models in which different ambiguity attitudes generate different predictions while at the same time keeping the normatively appealing tenet that agents follow through with ex ante optimal pure str...

We study what features an economic environment might possess, such that it would be Pareto efficient for the exchange of goods in that environment to be conducted on spot markets where those goods trade for money. We prove a conjecture that is essentially due to Bewley [1980, 1983]. The gist is that monetary spot trading is nearly efficient ex ante in an environment where very patient agents ca...