Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to explore hazardous marine environments. Risk assessment for such complex systems is based on subjective judgment and expert knowledge as much as on hard statistics. Here, we describe the use of a risk management process tailored to AUV operations, the implementation of which requires the elicitation of expert judgment. We conducted a...

Expert panels are playing an increasingly important role in U.S. health policy decision making. A fundamental issue in these applications is how to synthesize the judgments of individual experts into a group judgment. In this paper we propose an approach to synthesis based on Bayesian hierarchical models, and apply it to the problem of determining physician sta ng at medical centers operated by...

BACKGROUND A current challenge in medical education is the steep exposure to the complexity and uncertainty of clinical practice in early clerkship. The gap between pre-clinical courses and the reality of clinical decision-making can be overwhelming for undergraduate students. The Learning-by-Concordance (LbC) approach aims to bridge this gap by embedding complexity and uncertainty by relying o...

In human reliability analysis (HRA), dependence analysis refers to assessing the influence of the failure of the operators to perform one task on the failure probabilities of subsequent tasks. A commonly used approach is the technique for human error rate prediction (THERP). The assessment of the dependence level in THERP is a highly subjective judgment based on general rules for the influence ...

—Mangroves are critically important habitats for fisheries, both for their resident fish, crustacean, and mollusk populations and as nursery grounds for the target species of offshore fisheries. However, the spatial variation in the benefits provided by mangroves to fisheries is poorly understood. Based on expert knowledge of mangrove ecology and fisheries biology, we developed a preliminary mo...

nowadays, the customer's credit assessment is one of most important challenges for managers in decision making. especially in the current situation which the number scam has increased and outstanding claims of business company is increasing. on the other hand decision making about customers and their credit is based on expert judgment and also the customer information is often uncertain, a...

An experimental study was performed to determine the applicability and accuracy of occupational hygienist's expert judgment in occupational exposure assessment. The effect of tier 1 model application on improvement of expert judgments were also realized. Hygienists were asked to evaluate inhalation exposure intensity in seven operating units in a tile factory before and after an exposure traini...

This paper describes a new method of comparing the raw mark scales on two tests using expert judgment. The two tests do not need to have any common items, nor to be taken by common groups of candidates. This study used scripts (i.e., the complete work of a candidate on the test) from England's National Curriculum Test for Reading at Key Stage 3 (14-year olds) in 2003 and 2004. Each member of a ...

In this article a broad perspective incorporating elements of time series theory is presented for conceptualizing the data obtained in multi-trial judgment experiments. Recent evidence suggests that sequential context effects, assimilation and contrast, commonly found in psychophysical judgment tasks, may be present in judgments of abstract magnitudes. A time series approach for analyzing singl...

Fuzzy Analysis of Statistical Evidence (FASE) is utilizing the fuzzy set and the statistical theory for solving problems of pattern recognition and/or classification. Several features of FASE are similar to the human judgment. It can evaluate the weight of statistical evidence (information); it can update inference with new information; and it can incorporate missing data. Furthermore, since it...