M any analysts view personal saving behavior, summarized by statistics such as the personal saving rate or household debt acquisition, as a key determinant of real economic activity. Some blame the recent sluggishness of output and employment growth on low personal saving in recent years. The low rate of personal saving leaves consumers unprepared for their customary role of pulling the economy...

Abstract Herd behavior is a powerful source of growth in financial markets. However, as available energy resources limit exponential growth, we should expect periods where an upward trend balanced toward equilibrium or reverse its direction decline. This paper proposes novel approach for modeling herd and predicting reversal Our relies on two key metrics: asymmetry ‘steps to symmetry.’ We use M...

Rational herd behavior and informationally efficient security prices have long been considered to be mutually exclusive but for exceptional cases. In this paper we describe conditions on the underlying information structure that are necessary and sufficient for informational herding. Employing a standard sequential security trading model, we argue that people may be subject to herding if and on...