Financial decision support system development usually involves a number of recognizable steps: data preparation – cleaning, selecting, making data suitable for the predictor; prediction algorithm development and tuning – for performance on the quality of interest and evaluation – to see if indeed the system performs on unseen data. But since financial prediction is very difficult, extra insight...

bankruptcy is an event with strong impacts on management, shareholders, employees, creditors, customers and other stakeholders, so as bankruptcy challenges the country both socially and economically. therefore, correct prediction of bankruptcy is of high importance in the financial world. this research intends to investigate financial crisis prediction power using models based on neural network...

Machine learning, a branch of artificial intelligence, concerns the construction and study of systems that can learn from data. Neural network is the well-known branch of machine learning & it has been used extensively by researchers for prediction of data and the prediction accuracy depends upon fine tuning of particular financial data. In this paper neural networks have been used for financia...

Recently, the Support Vector Regression (SVR) has been applied in the financial time series prediction. The financial data are usually highly noisy and contain outliers. Detecting outliers and deflating their influence are important but hard problems. In this paper, we propose a novel “two-phase” SVR training algorithm to detect outliers and reduce their negative impact. Our experimental result...

One of the issues helping make investment decisions is appropriate tools and models to evaluate financial situation 0f the organization.  By means of these tools, investors can analyze financial situation of the organization and identify financial distress or an ideal condition, they become aware of making decisions to invest in appropriate conditions.  The main objective of this study is to ev...

We consider statistical aspects of the modelling and prediction theory of time series in one and many dimensions. We discuss Lévy-based and general models, and the stationary and non-stationary cases. Our starting point is the recent pair of surveys, Szegö’s theorem and its probabilistic descendants and Multivariate prediction and matrix Szegö theory, by this author.

Hard problems force innovative approaches and attention to detail, their exploration often contributing beyond the area initially attempted. This thesis investigates the data mining process resulting in a predictor for numerical series. The series experimented with come from financial data – usually hard to forecast. One approach to prediction is to spot patterns in the past, when we already kn...

We investigate the importance of text analysis for stock price prediction. In particular, we introduce a system that forecasts companies’ stock price changes (UP, DOWN, STAY) in response to financial events reported in 8-K documents. Our results indicate that using text boosts prediction accuracy over 10% (relative) over a strong baseline that incorporates many financially-rooted features. This...

This paper attempts to identify the importance of sentiment words in financial reports on financial risk. By using a financespecific sentiment lexicon, we apply regression and ranking techniques to analyze the relations between sentiment words and financial risk. The experimental results show that, based on the bag-of-words model, models trained on sentiment words only result in comparable perf...

In this paper a Polychronous Spiking Network was applied to financial time series prediction with the aim of exploiting the inherent temporal capabilities of the spiking neural model. The performance of this network was benchmarked against two “traditional”, rate-encoded, neural networks; a Multi-Layer Perceptron network and a Functional Link Neural Network. Three non-stationary datasets were u...